Unless gasoline prices eventually increase substantially, any energy savings associated with
lower fuel use or a shift to electricity will provide only a moderate offset against high purchase
price--primarily because annual fuel costs are not high in efficient conventional vehicles. In the
mid-size vehicles OTA examined for 2015, for $1.50/gallon gasoline, the maximum savings
(NiMH battery-powered EV versus baseline vehicle) would offset about $2,300 in higher
purchase price for the EV.^80 OTA expects the Ni-MH EV to cost about $10,000 more than the
baseline vehicle, although the sharp reductions in cost projected by one battery developer--
Ovonics--would reduce this to about $4,000.
SAFETY OF LIGHTWEIGHT VEHICLESAlthough some of the vehicles examined by OTA will weigh as much or more than current
conventional vehicles, many will weigh substantially less. For example, the advanced conventional
vehicles in the year 2015 will weigh approximately 30 to 40 percent less than current conventional
vehicles. In other words, a mid-size car with a current weight of 3,250 pounds conceivably could
weigh less than 2,000 pounds in 2015, if maximum weight reductions are sought.
Strong concerns about vehicle safety would likely accompany such dramatic weight reductions.
Weight reductions of lesser magnitude have been associated in the past with significant increases
in fatality and injury rates in the U.S. fleet; the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
(NHTSA) concluded that changes in the size and weight composition of the new car fleet from
1970 to 1982^81 “resulted in increases of nearly 2,000 fatalities and 20,000 serious injuries per
year”^82 over the number that would have occurred had there been no downsizing occurred.
Moreover, during the early 1990s, the congressional debate on proposed new fuel economy
standards was strongly influenced by claims and counterclaims about the potential adverse effects
on vehicle safety of size and weight reductions that supposedly would be forced by the standards.
It would be surprising if future attempts to speed the commercialization of these lighter weight
designs were not accompanied by a renewal of the safety debate.
Much of the “accepted wisdom” of automotive safety comes from the statistical analysis of the
nation’s database on automobile accidents, especially from the Fatal Accident Reporting System
and other government data repositories. Unfortunately, attempts to determine the impact of
weight reduction on car safety suffer from the close association of vehicle weight with wheelbase
and other size measures (including the amount of crush space) that also impact safety. In other
(^78) We have assumed that methanol price, including highway taxes, will approximate the energy-equivalent price of gasoline, for competitive
reasons. The imposition of taxes equivalent to gasoline’s tax burden yields a methanol price net of taxes of about 50¢/gallom which is low by today’s
standards. 79
80 Delucchi, see footnote 73.
For a 10 percent discount rate, assumed 10-year vehicle lifetime. This calculation assumes near constant miles driven over time for the new
vehicles. Historically, vehicles tend to be driven most when they are new, with mileage dropping off quite rapidly as they age. Were these vehicles to
fit the historic pattern, our calculation of a $2,300 offset would be much too low because in a discount calculation, early savings count more than later
ones, and the more efficient vehicle would save more money on energy in its first few years than it did in later years. However, the increasing
reliability and longevity of modern vehicles appears likely to shift annual driving patterns in the direction of more uniform mileage overtime. 81
82 For new cars involved in fatal collisions, median curb weight shrank by 1,000 lbs, wheelbase by 10 inches, and track width by 2 to 3 inches.
U.S... Department of Transportation National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, ‘Effect of Car Size on Fatality and Injury Risk,” 1990.