The Economist - USA (2019-07-20)

30 The Americas The EconomistJuly 20th 2019

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Bello A faint hope for Venezuela

S

ince a failedattempt on April 30th to

trigger a military uprising against the

dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro, Venezu-

ela has entered a costly stalemate. The

opposition is not strong enough to bring

Mr Maduro down. He cannot halt the

country’s slide into penurious ungo-

vernability. Against this background,

both sides sat down in Barbados this

week at talks convened by Norway’s

government. After three preliminary

meetings, this marked the start of “con-

tinuous and expeditious” negotiations,

according to Norway’s foreign ministry.

The plan is to meet every Monday to

Wednesday in Barbados to tackle a six-

point agenda, starting with elections and

the lifting of sanctions imposed by the

United States and others. The opposi-

tion’s delegates command wide respect.

The government team are officials close

to Mr Maduro. The Norwegians are expe-

rienced mediators. Having acted as

facilitators in the peace talks in Havana

between Colombia’s government and the

farcguerrillas they are trusted by Cuba,

Mr Maduro’s chief international backer.

Yet there are big reasons for scepticism.

Many in the opposition scorn talks,

after three attempts since 2014 that Mr

Maduro used merely to buy time and sow

division. Juan Guaidó, the opposition

leader and speaker of the national as-

sembly who is recognised as interim

president by more than 50 democracies,

has backed the Norway initiative. But to

keep his fractious coalition together he

has also refused to rule out inviting

military intervention by the United

States to overthrow Mr Maduro.

Despite the talks, the government

continues to try to crush the opposition.

On July 12th it arrested two of Mr Guaidó’s

bodyguards. His chief of staff, Roberto

Marrero, has been in jail since March.

Two dozen opposition assembly members

are in exile or in hiding, having been

stripped of parliamentary immunity. Mr

Maduro rules through paramilitary police

forces, repression and torture, as a report

by the unHigh Commissioner for Human

Rights this month made clear.

Each side still appears to want differ-

ent—and impossible—things from the

talks. Jorge Rodríguez, one of Mr Maduro’s

representatives, said brightly this week

that his boss was committed to “a perma-

nent dialogue for peace”. That is precisely

what the opposition does not want. Mr

Guaidó’s oft-repeated three-point pro-

gramme, backed by Donald Trump’s ad-

ministration, is “an end to the usurpation”

(meaning that Mr Maduro steps down), a

transitional government and a free presi-

dential election within a year. The opposi-

tion says it will leave the table if there is no

progress within a few weeks.

“The government hasn’t decided

whether it’s willing to risk losing power,”

says Phil Gunson, who works in Caracas

for Crisis Group, a Brussels-based ngo. “I

don’t get a clear sense that they know the

situation is untenable and that they have

to negotiate a way out.”

The big question is whether Mr Madu-

ro is prepared to step down to allow a

transition. Similarly, the opposition

would probably have to accept a genuine

transitional government, composed of

both sides and headed by a third figure,

rather than a takeover by Mr Guaidó.

The alternatives are bleak. Even be-

fore Mr Trump imposed sanctions on

Venezuela’s oil industry in January,

mismanagement was destroying the

economy and public services. Some 4m

Venezuelans have emigrated since 2015.

If nothing changes, that figure will dou-

ble by the end of next year, reckons the

Organisation of American States. Most

will go to Colombia, which is struggling

to cope and cannot close its 2,200km

(1,400-mile) border with Venezuela. If

the talks fail, there is a risk of violence.

One diplomat close to the situation fears

a border war between Colombia and

Venezuela, which hosts 1,000 or so Co-

lombian guerrillas from the elngroup.

Several things would aid the talks.

The armed forces and Diosdado Cabello,

Mr Maduro’s de facto deputy and rival,

should be at the table. The European

Union and most Latin American democ-

racies have backed the talks. The United

States, China and Russia should do so,

too. More pressure on Mr Maduro is

needed. Federica Mogherini, the out-

going euforeign-policy chief, said this

week that were the talks to fail Europe

would step up sanctions against regime

leaders and their families. That, more

than oil sanctions, which hurt all Vene-

zuelans, is what Mr Maduro’s people

most fear. It is a threat that should be tied

to swift and measurable progress in

Barbados. Otherwise, the last, best hope

for Venezuela will slip away.

Can negotiations restore democracy?

risk is zero”, concluded a report in 2018 by

the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad-

ministration (noaa), an American govern-

ment agency.

Some solutions cause problems. In 2015

the noaatold American fishermen to put

more traps on each fishing line to reduce

the number of lines in the water. That re-

quired stronger rope, which made it harder

for whales to free themselves. Some ships

are thought to speed up before entering a

speed-limit zone, raising the risk of killing

a whale. In American waters, the speed lim-

its near whale sightings are voluntary.

The whale-protection measures have

reduced fishermen’s catch. The speed limit

on large boats can lengthen by eight hours

the time it takes to get from Cabot strait to

Montreal. Cruise ships have had to cancel

stops. Owners of container ships may need

to add more vessels to meet delivery sched-

ules. Despite the extra costs, captains have

mostly obeyed the rule. According to the

Canadian transport department, only 111 of

the 1,472 ships that sailed through restrict-

ed zones between April 28th and June

27th broke the speed limit.

The government hopes that eventually

new devices, like ropeless fishing gear, will

save some whales. It is giving more money

to organisations like Campobello Whale

Rescue, a group of scientists, researchers

and fishermen on Campobello Island in

New Brunswick. They set forth in inflatable

speedboats to free whales from fishing

lines. It is dangerous work. In 2017 a whale

struck one of its rescuers with its tail, kill-

ing him. On July 8th this year another team

sped out from Campobello to free the

whales off Miscou island. By July 15th they

had disentangled two of them partially.

The whales swam off trailing ropes. 7