Contemporary Conflict Analysis in Perspective 37
This conclusion had been reached by Roben Park and his associates during the
1920s and 30s. These authors stressed that ethnicity and ethnic conflict were
caused by threats, real or imaginary, to an existing ecological pattern of mutual
adjustment highlighting the fluid character of ethnic categorisations and their
negotiable imprint, a result of the variance in their situational importance. Such
approaches opened the way for a critical analysis of primordial approaches to
ethnicity and the realisation that these can be consciously manipulated.
37 J Cilliers, Resource wars - a new type of insurgency, Cilliers et al [eds), op cit,
P 2.
38 Rupesinghe et al, op cit. pp 32-33.
39 For an in-depth discussion of the correlation mentioned please refer to Cum &
Marshall with Khosla, op cit, p 12.
40 For a collection of Paul Collier's articles, as well as access to the World Bank's
Policy Research Project entitled The causes of civil war, crime and violence refer
to < http://www.worldbank.org/research/conflict/civil.htm >. See the very interesting
collection of essays in M Berdal and D Malone (eds), Greed and grievance:
Economic agendas in civil wan, Lynne Rienner, Boulder CO, 2000 in particular I
de Soysa's article, The resource curse: Are civil wars driven by rapacity or pauci-
ty! See also M Berdal and D Keen, Violence and economic agendas in civil wars:
Some policy implications, Millenium: Journal of International Studies, vol26, no
3, pp 795-818. Another interesting perspective on 'resource wan' can be found
in J Fairhead, The conflict over natural and environmental resources. The origins
of humanitarian emergencies: War and displacement in developing countries. E
W Wayne, F Stewart and R Vayrynen (eds), Oxford University Press. Oxford.- Also D Keen. Economic Iunctions of Violence in civil wars, International
Institute for Strategic Studies Adelphi Paper no 320, Oxford University Press. 1998.
Also see the already quoted D Jung with K Schlite & J Siegelberg, Ongoing wars
the their expalantion, L Van de Goor el a1 (eds), op cit, pp 50-63.
41 P Collier, Doing well out of war, Paper prepared for Conference on Economic
Agendas in Civil Wars, London 26-27 April 1999. The World Bank, The
Economics of Crime and Violence Project, Washington DC, 10 April, 1999, p 1.
< http://www.worldbank.org/research/conflict/pape~nda.htm >
42 Not dissimilar to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's expected-utility theon,. Methodolo-
gically, as was previously pointed out, the authors use statistical and probabilis-
tic analysis (mainly probit and tobit regressions) and claim that the results
obtained through these methods suppon and confirm the assertion that economic
agendas are central to the origins and continuance of many civil wan. P Collier
& A Hoeffler, On economic causes of civil war, The World Bank. The Economics
of Crime and Violence Project, Washington DC, January 1998. < http://www.world-
bank.org/research/conflict/papers/cwcause.htm >. Also published in 0.yford
Economic Papen, 50,1998, pp 563-73..
43 in this sense, 'the higher is per capita income on an internationally comparable
measure, the lower is the risk of civil war". The authors interpret this 'as being
due to the effect of higher income on the opportunity cost of rebellion". Ibid, pp
7&9.
44 Ibid.