Scarcity and surfeit : the ecology of Africa's conflicts

Scarcity and Surfeit

Ibid.
The authors measure ethnic diversity through the index of ethno-linguistic frac-
tionalisation which measures the probability of two randomly drawn people
being from different ethnic groups developed originally in the Atlas Naradou
Mira, Department of Geodesy and Cartography of the State Geological Committee
of the USSR, Moscow, 1964.
Collier & Hoeffler, op cit, pp 7-8.
Ibid, pp 8-9.
Collier, op cit, p 14.
Nevertheless, the author points out that inequality is obviously related to eco-
nomic growth and therefore an indicator to bear in mind. Ibid, p 5.
Ibid, pp 6 & 11.
Ibid, bp 1-2.
For example, "a country which is heavily dependent upon primary commodity
exports, with a quarter of its national income coming from them, has a risk of
conflict four times greater than one without primary commodity exports". Ibid,
P 5.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid, pp 6 & 11
Ibid, p-6.
The earlier expression of expected-utility analysis stems from Von Neumman and
Morgenstern in their Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour, Princeton
University Press, 1944. As pointed out by M Nicholson in The conceptual bases
of the war trap, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol 13, no 2, June 1987, p 357,
"These authors demonstrated a set of postulates about behaviour which if fol-
lowed would mean that actors behave in circumstances of risk as if they were
maximising the expected value of some defined concept of utility". Expected-
utility theory as regards the occurrence of war was developed by B de Mesquita
in his The war trap, Yale University Press, New Haven, 1981.
See inter aIia, M Nicholson, Rationality and the analysis of international conflict.
Cambridge Studies in International Relations, Cambridge University Press, 1992; S
J Majeski with D J Sylvan, Simple choices and complex calculations: A critique of
the war trap', Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol28, no 2, June 1984, pp 316-340.
T Scheiling, The strategy of conflict, Harvard University Press, Cambridge Mass,

1960. See also V Jabri. Discourses on violence, Manchester University Press, 1996,
      pp 62-65.
      V Jabri, op cit, p 14. In fact, as Charles King points out, "in prolonged armed con-
      flicts, belligerents analyse costs and benefits according to two rather different sets
      of criteria. The potential benefits of continuing to fight tend to be analysed
      prospectively, while the potential costs are normally viewed retrospectively".
      C King. Ending civil wars, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Adelphi
      Paper 308, London, 1997, p 43.
      For a discussion of this approach see V Jabri, op cit, pp 57-58 as well as 0 Holsti,
      Crisis Management, Psychological dimensions of conflict, B Glad (ed), Sage,
      London, 1990.