The Economist - USA (2022-02-12)

The Economist February 12th 2022 International 51

security order on the continent. 
On  the  military  stand­off,  Mr  Macron
warned of the risk of “incandescence”. But
French  and  German  diplomats  have  been
warier  of  declaring  that  Russia’s  build­up
signalled  an  “imminent”  invasion,  as
America and Britain have tended to argue.
European  officials  now  espy  a  narrow
pathto avoid conflict. It passes through the
Normandy  format,  the  one  forum  where
Russia and Ukraine can negotiate directly.
For all of Mr Putin’s demands about halting
nato’s eastbound expansion and even roll­
ing back its current military deployments,
what  most  seems  to  vex him  is  Ukraine.
The country has shifted towards the West­
ern camp since 2014, when a revolt ousted
its  autocratic  Moscow­backed  president,
Viktor Yanukovych. This prompted Mr Pu­
tin to annex Crimea and foment a separat­
ist revolt in the eastern Donbas region. 
At the barrel of a gun Petro Poroshenko,
Ukraine’s next elected president, accepted
the Minsk accords. These were deliberately
vague. On the security side they mandated
a ceasefire, a withdrawal of heavy weapons
from  the  front  lines,  an  exchange  of  pris­
oners and the removal of “foreign troops”,
meaning  Russians.  On  the  political  side
Ukraine  agreed  to  make  constitutional
changes  to  decentralise  power,  hold  local
elections and give Donbas a special status.
Ukraine  would  then  be  allowed  to  regain
control over its border. 
How “special” that status would be was
left undefined, as was the precise sequence
of  steps  and  the  question  of  whether  the
1.5m  people  of  Donbas  displaced  by  the
conflict should have a say in its future. In
effect,  Ukrainian  law  would  not  apply
there. Donbas would have its own local mi­
litias. In the eyes of Russia the purpose of
Minsk was to create a Trojan horse to give it
control of Ukraine. 
Mr  Poroshenko’s  attempt  in  2015  to
push  a  mild  version  of  the  constitutional
changes  through  the  Rada  (parliament)
prompted  fierce  protests  from  national­
ists,  resulting  in  the  death  of  several  na­
tional guards. But defying expectations of
its  collapse,  Ukraine  muddled  through,
ducked and dodged, survived and consoli­
dated.  It  stabilised  its  economy  and  built
up  and  modernised  its  army.  As  the  first
line of its national anthem goes, “Ukraine
is  not  yet  dead.”  Though  he  could  not  im­
plement the Minsk accords, Mr Poroshen­
ko could not ditch them either. As the Uk­
raine  crisis  flares  again,  European  leaders
are urging his successor, Volodymyr Zelen­
sky, to re­engage with Minsk.
But  implementing  the  accords  has  be­
come a lot harder. Russia has tightened its
grip  over  the  separatist  territories.  It  has
built up a force estimated at 40,000 men,
eliminated  some  of  the  unrulier  com­
manders  and  installed  its  own  leaders.  It
has  distributed  hundreds  of  thousands  of

passportstoresidentsofDonbas,manyof

whomvotedlastyearinRussia’sparlia­

mentaryelections.

BringingDonbasbackintoUkraineon

Russia’stermscouldspelltheendofUk­

raineasa sovereignstate,orsomanyUk­

rainiansfear.Oneworryisthatconstitu­

tionalchangeleading to“federalisation”

wouldgive Donbas—and thusRussia—a

vetoonUkraine’sWest­leaningpolicy,no­

tablyitsabilityto joinnato. Another is

thatitwillcorrodethecountryfromwith­

in,bygivingRussiamorewaystomeddle

initsaffairs. AsZerkaloNedeli, anonline

Ukrainianweekly,pointsout,forcingUk­

rainetoenactMinskis“aslowandpainful

execution—notbyshooting,butbyinject­

ingitwithlethalpoison”. Withhisown

popularityratingdroppingbelow25%,an

energycrisisloomingandthecostofliving

rising,MrZelenskywouldfacemassprot­

estsif Ukrainiansseeit asa sell­out.

AvoidtheFinnishline

YetsomeveteranUkrainianpoliticians,in­

cluding Arsen Avakov, aformer interior

minister,andMrPoroshenko,believethat

Ukraine is strongerthanitmay appear.

They think Mr Putin would struggle to

forceUkrainetosurrenderitssovereignty.

AfternearlyeightyearsofwarUkraine’sar­

my,oneofthelargestinEurope,ishard­

ened. This,alongwithfirmerbackingfrom

abroad,mayexplainwhyUkraine’seliteis

relativelycalm.“Mymessageis:don’ttrust

Putinanddon’tbeafraidofPutin,”saysMr

Poroshenko.“Strengthandresolveisthe

onlylanguagethatworks.”

Ukrainemaybeabletocopewitha ver­

sionofMinskthatfallsshortofMrPutin’s

demands.Itcould,forexample,agreeto

negotiatewiththenewlyappointedheads

ofDonbas,providedthatRussiaremoved

itsproxyforces.Oritcouldagreetohold

elections and dress updecentralisation,

whichhasalreadytakenplaceintherestof

Ukraine,asthe“specialstatus”forDonbas,

aslong as Ukrainianlaws apply. Inthe

meantime Mr Putin may calculate that

waitingforMrZelenskytofalterandforthe

economiccrunchtotakeeffectmaybeless

dangerous than fighting. Russia would

needatleast700,000mentocaptureand

occupyUkraine,someanalystsreckon.

Apeculiarityofthecrisisisthat,even

thoughnooneinnatothinksUkraineisfit

tojointhealliancesoon,ifever,thebody

cannotbe seento close its“open­door”

policyinthefaceofRussianthreats.Some

Europeandiplomatsthinkthecirclecould

besquaredifUkraineitselfweretodeclare

itsneutrality,asAustriaandFinlanddid

afterthesecondworldwar.Askedabout

“Finlandisation”,MrMacronletslipthatit

was“onemodelonthetable”,butinsisted

thatcreativenegotiatorswouldhaveto“in­

ventsomethingnew”.Russiandiplomats

havesaidtheymightentertaintheidea.

Thetroubleis,Ukrainehaswritteninto

itsconstitutiontheambitiontojoinnato.

Moreover,FinlandandSwedenareasclose

tonato—andasinteroperablewithit—as

itispossibletobewithoutactuallybeing

members.Indeed,Russia’sbrutishbehav­

iouriskindlinga debatewithinbothcoun­

triesaboutjoining.Whatismore,Finland,

SwedenandAustriaareallmembersofthe

eu,whichMrPutindislikes,too.

The Normandy process gives France

andGermanya chancetoclaima placeat

thetalkswithRussia,whichhavehitherto

beendominatedbyAmericaandnato, if

onlybecauseRussiasubmittednewtrea­

tiestothosetwoentities.TheFrench,al­

thoughtheyaremembersofnato, have

unsurprisingly bristled at being merely

“debriefed”bytheAmericans.

Two years ago Mr Macron had an­

nouncedthe“braindeath”ofnatoduetoa

double malady: under Donald Trump

Americawasnolongerwillingtoguaran­

teeEurope’ssecurity;andsomemembers,

BRITAIN

IRELAND NETH.

DENMARK

NORWAY SWEDEN

FINLAND

HUNGARY

CZECHREP.

AUSTRIA

ROMANIA

MOLDOVA

GEORGIA

BULGARIA

BELARUS

Crimea

BlackSea

ATLANTIC

OCEAN

BELG.

LUX.

GERMANY

POLAND

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

EST.

TURKEY

CYPRUS

FRANCE

GREECE

ALBANIA

MONT.

N.MAC.

LAT.

LITH.

SYRIA

SPAIN

PORTUGAL

ITALY

SLOV.

SLOVAKIA

CROATIA

Controlledby

Russian-backed

separatists

Do

nb

Kyiv as

Moscow

Minsk

Berlin

Paris

Brussels

NordStream 2

pipeline

300 km

Estimated Russian

troop numbers

By base, Feb 8th 2022

,000 7,500

Source: Rochan Consulting

European Union and NATO* membership, 222

EUonly

*MembersalsoincludeIceland,CanadaandUnitedStates

EU and NATO members NATO only