Strategic Planning in the Small Business

others.

Stock markets will become

more

fully connected and integrated.

e By

2000 or so, all national curren-

cies will be convertible,

following a

model similar to the

European Corn-

munity's Exchange Rate

Mechanism.

* It will become increasingly

dif-

ficult to label a product by nation

(e.g.,

"Japanese cars") since parts

often

come from several countries to

be assembled

in others and sold in

yet others. Protective tariffs

will be-

come obsolete - for

the good of the

worldwide economy.

37. The

world is quickly dividing

itself into three major blocs: the

Euro-

pean

Communit", the North Amer-

ican free-trade

zone, and Japan's

informal but

very real Pacific de-

velopment area. Other

regions will

all), themselves with these

giants:

Eastern Europe

with the EC, Mexico

with the United

States and Canada.

The nations

of Latin America will

slowly build ties with

their neighbors

to the

North. The Australia-New

Zealand

bloc is still trying to make

up its mind which of these units to

join - the

Pacific Rim, where its

nearest markets are,

or Europe and

North America,

where its emotional

bonds are strongest.

* The economic structure of

all

these regions is

changing rapidly. All

but

the least-developed

nations

are

moving out of

agriculture. Service

sectors are growing rapidly in

the

mature economies, while manufac-

hiring is being transfcr-ed

to the

world's developing economies.

* Within the new economic blocs,

multinational corporations

will not

replace the

nation-state, but they will2.

become far more powerful,

espe­

cially as governments

relinquish

as-

pects of social responsibility to

em­

ployers.

38. The

European Community

will become a

major player in the

world

economy.

@By 1992, the EC will represent

a

population of

325 million people

with

a $4-trillion GDP.

e

By 1996, the European Free Trade

Association

countries will join with

the EC to create

a market of 400 million

people with a 5-trillion

GDP. Sweden,

Norway, Finland, Austria,

and Switz-

erland will join the founding 12.

9 By 2000, most of the former East

Bloc countries

will be associate mem-

bers

of the EC.

39. The

25 most-industrialized

countries will devote

between 2%

and 3% of their GDP

to help their

poorer neighbors.

a Much

aid to poorer countries will

be money that formerly would

have

gone to pay military budgets.

a The

World Bank and IMF will

help distribute

funds.

• Loans and grants

may require

developing nations to set

up popula-

tion-control

programs.

40. Western bankers

will at last ac-

cept the obvious

truth: Many Third

World debtors have no hope of

ever

paying

back overdue loans. Cred-

itors will thus forgive

one-third of

these

debts. This will save some of

the developing

nations from bank­

ruptcy

and probable dictatorship.

41. Developing nations

once na­

tionalized plants and industries

when they became desperate to pay

their debts. In

the future, the World

Bank and the

IMF will refuse to lend

to nations

that take this easy way out.

(Debtors, such

as Peru, are eager to

make amends to these

organizations.)

Instead, indebted

nations will pro­

mote private industry in

the hope of

raising

needed income.

42. Washington, D.C.,

will sup­

plant New York as the world

finan­

cial

capital. The stock exchanges and

other financial

institutions, espe­

cially those

involved with interna­

tional transactions, will

move south

to be near

Congress, the World Bank,

and key regulatory bodies.

* Among the key economic

players

already in Washington: the Federal

Reserve

Board, the embassies and

G0owth Rates

In Gross Domestic Product

e.

1955.1990

[]

1990.20o

. _

4 3.

.,

2

0

Developed

ELtern urofe Develofing

China

World and Soviet Un World

a','"

o.,ui

Soue: iWk um, Now* , o)&,-Fso

.ewqk,,www.u

THE FUTURIST

Seplember-October 7997 19

131