2 Strong leadership: Strong group leaders carry enormous influence within
the group and this can lead to increased pressure for a unanimous group
position to be taken in order to show solidarity with the leader.
3 Lack of objective search and evaluation: Groups develop their own way of
reaching decisions; this tends to be informal because of the level of
trust between members. The result is that alternative courses of action
are not explored. When alternative actions areidentified they are only
considered at a superficial level.
4 Insulation of the group: As the group bonds increase members tend to
have fewer interactions with members outside the group. Alternative
viewpoints therefore are not heard on a regular basis. When they are
heard they are largely rejected because the individual proposing them
is not a member of the group and therefore not a reliable source.
Groupthink causes six different types of problem for jury forecasting:
1 Illusions of invulnerability: Because the responsibility for a decision is
shared in a group, individuals do not feel the same level of responsibil-
ity for the outcome. Groups therefore are more willing than an indi-
vidual to take decisions that carry a higher level of risk. This is
exacerbated by the fact that the individual group members have confi-
dence in the combined wisdom of the group and feel the group’s delib-
erations will have identified all the potential dangers. The reality is
that ingroups tend to be over optimistic and ignore warning signs tak-
ing more risky decisions as a result. Research also shows that groups
tend to become more extreme, whatever they are like, so for example
conservative groups become more conservative.
2 Collective rationalisation: Ingroups tend to develop a collective rationale
to discredit any evidence that may act as a warning or a threat.
Elaborate reasons are developed to explain why events did not happen
as predicted. The group will find a rationale that will allow it to defend
itself from criticism especially from outside individuals or groups. The
overall effect is to reassure the group that its decisions are legitimate.
3 Belief in the inherent morality of the group: All members of the group are
presumed to have a set of high moral and ethical standards. Group
decisions as a result are seen as unquestionably morally right.
Ingroups therefore fail to pay rigorous attention to the moral conse-
quences of their decision making.
4 Pressure on dissenters: Both direct and indirect pressure to conform is
applied to members of the group. A member who shows signs of dis-
sent may be excluded from an exclusive inner circle unless they return
to the conformist view. Ultimately they may be ejected from the group
altogether if their dissent continues.
5 The illusion of unanimity: Individuals who may hold opposing opinions
to other members of the group on an issue tend to practice self-censorship.
They will give voice to mildly opposing views or keep quiet altogether
as a way of avoiding the hostile reaction of the rest of the group. Group
members may stay quiet merely because they believe that no one else
shares their views which further reinforce self-censorship.116 Strategic Marketing: Planning and Control