6 Self-appointed mind guards: Members of the group take on the role of
guarding against incoming information that may threaten the group’s
position. Thus information is effectively filtered to stop any opposing
evidence from being considered during group discussions. The
absence of any contradictory evidence reinforces the unanimity of
view amongst group members.
Janis regarded decisions such as the Bay of Pigs invasion, escalation of the
Vietnam War and the lack of preparation for an air attack on Pearl Harbour
as illustrations of the effect of group think. A more contemporary example
would be the disaster of the Challenger space shuttle. There are obvious
commercial examples as well including perhaps the Sinclair C5.
Ingroups cause obvious problems for organisations as they curtail crit-
ical evaluation, limit the serious reflection of alternative courses of action
and foster acquiescent behaviour in individuals. However they are virtu-
ally impossible to eradicate. Ingroups exist precisely because they offer
security to individuals and a sense of belonging. There are ways to min-
imise groupthink behaviour during forecasting and planning activities.
The aim of these curtailing actions is to enforce a critical evaluation decision-
making process without destroying the group. Fostering a critical
evaluation can be facilitated by instituting several procedural measures
(Makridakisand Wheelwright, 1989):
● A member of the group can be assigned the role of the ‘Devils advo-
cate’ when specific decision-making activities are taking place. The
individual undertaking this role will obviously be rotated.
● The group leader is not allowed, at least at the early stages of the dis-
cussion, to advocate a particular point of view. They have to take an
impartial role and allow the group to develop its own opinions.
● The group can invite outside independent individuals to attend group
discussions when critical decisions are being made. Their role could be
precisely to raise alternatives or to provide alternative evidence not
considered by the group.
Given that group forecasting is prevalent in organisations it is crucial that
companies recognise the dangers of groupthink in their forecasting and
planning activities.
Delphi forecasts
One technique that has been developed to overcome the problem with
group forecasts is the Delphi forecast. A Delphi forecast purposely keeps
the panel of experts involved physically apart. In many studies they will
remain unknown to each other. Communication is undertaken by letter or
e-mail directly to each individual from the Delphi study co-ordinator. This
approach is taken in order to remove the social pressures and other undesir-
able aspects of group interaction. If a study examining what techno-
logical breakthroughs are desirable and achievable in the next 20 years
was commissioned the following procedures would be executed. Once
Developing a future orientation 117