individuals have undertaken in the previous round. Panel members can
adjust their judgements in the light of the previous round in particular
they may change their view once they have seen the reasoning given by
the experts who took an extreme position.
Delphi forecasts aim to arrive at a consensus position and can go
beyond a fourth phase in order to arrive at this position. Once a consensus
has been achieved an organisation can then begin to weigh up the impact
the forecasted events will have on their operations.
There are several problems with this forecasting technique:
● The process consumes a lot of time, as there can be considerable delays
waiting to receive a full set of replies every round.
● The time delays cause organisational problems as panel members
begin to drop out or become less motivated.
● A major problem is that Delphi forecasts appear to be heavily influ-
enced by the ideas in fashion at the time of the survey.
● The other significant shortcoming with the technique is that experts on
these studies have invariably been over optimistic on the timescales
involved in developments coming to fruition.
● There are also issues about the membership of the panel in the first
place. How decisions on the panel, and who involved in making those
deliberations, can be subject to all the problems outlined in the jury
method discussed earlier.
The advantages of the Delphi method should not be dismissed, however
the technique does attempt to remove some of the problems related to
group decisions making. The Delphi method also is a move away from
striving to form a single view of the future. Although the aim is to narrow
down the responses to as much of a consensus as possible this may not be
achieved. When the process does not reach a clear consensus it can still be
useful as it has identified the spread of opinion among experts in the field.
A planning team therefore can consider a series of potential outcomes.
■ Scenario planning
This idea of identifying a diverse range of potential futures lies at the heart
of the scenario planning process. Scenarios are normally developed by a
whole management group, although they can be undertaken by a cross sec-
tion of people from across an organisation. They may also include specially
invited outside guests who may be able to offer an alternative perspective. It
is important that all members of the group are familiar with the environmen-
tal analysis that has already taken place. There are several techniques avail-
able to develop scenarios some much more sophisticated and thorough than
others. Here we are only going to explore the development of simple scen-
arios. There are four key stages in the development of simple scenarios:
1 Identify the critical variables: The first step is to use a brainstorming
session to establish the factors that will drive changes in the future
Developing a future orientation 119