environment. Longer-term time horizons should be used so that par-
ticipants’ do not simply extrapolate from present trends. The focus is
on the external environment not the organisation and its current rela-
tionships. Once these drivers for change have been identified they
should be evaluated on the basis of their importance to the organisa-
tion and the level of certainty associated with the manner in which
that driver of change will actually develop (see Figure 6.3).
2 Develop possible strings of events: The key drivers of change will be ones
that are identified as being important but not predictable in which way
they will develop. There will be more than one view or interpretation
on which way these drivers will manifest themselves in the future.
These will form the building blocks for the scenarios. The important
drivers that are certain to develop may also appear in the scenario but
these will appear in every scenario on the same timescale. The next120 Strategic Marketing: Planning and ControlIllustrative Example 6.1
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies (CIFS) is an academic group specialising in
futures forecasting. The institute’s view is that society in future will be driven by creativity
and innovation. This will lead to the phenomena of the ‘Creative Man’ (CIFS, 2004) born out
of a number of trends. At a social level CIFS has identified a growth in peoples’ individual
need for greater personnel growth while developments at a technological level permit greater
individual self-expression in the production of products and services. In Europe and other
developed economies the growth of automation in manufacturing is also leading to a shift in
the balance of employment to the service sector where these new technologies allow higher
levels of self-expression.
CIFS believes this shift to a creative and innovative society will lead to profound changes in
consumption patterns. In a society where having a high level of income is more common and
brands are everywhere it will become difficult to demonstrate one’s social standing simply
through the exhibition of high-priced status brands. In future individuals will wish to demon-
strate their status through building on the wealth they exhibit by also having a creative part in
the design of the products and services they display. This ability to co-design products is a
service that companies are already beginning to offer. For example, in Poland consumers can
buy a designer white sofa that comes with an embroidery set. This allows the customer to add
their own embroidery to the sofa making their own customised version of the product. CIFS
believe this development will accelerate and move, at a fundamental level, the centre of power
away from companies and towards consumers. Market segments will become highly frag-
mented making current market communication strategies obsolete. At the same time organ-
isations will need to have a much deeper level of engagement with individual customers.
These developments will have a major impact on the culture of companies and the nature of
their value chains.