Strategic Marketing: Planning and Control, Third Edition

step is to again have a brainstorming session that puts these drivers
into alternative sequences of events overtime. One way of operating is
to write each driver of change on a separate note of paper. These can
then be moved to change their position as each alternative scenario is
developed. The whole aim is to build scenarios that start from the situ-
ation today and develop into a future position that was not pre-
planned, by the planning group, at the beginning of the scenarios
development.
3 Refine the scenarios: Once a whole range of scenarios have been developed
using the same key drivers for change they will need to be evaluated.
Scenarios have to be challenging and have an internal consistency. A
scenario would not for example be internally consistent if it had the UK
government cutting interest rates dramatically below the rate of other
European countries, while at the same time the Pound (Sterling) was
dramatically strengthening against the Euro. Scenarios also should be
credible and recognisable. Once the weakest scenarios have been dis-
carded it is important to test the remainder for their robustness. One
useful approach is to test the scenario from the perspective of organisa-
tions or individuals that are actors in the story line. Do their actions
appear to be compatible with the logic of that actor’s position?

Developing a future orientation 121

Figure 6.3

The importance/

uncertainty matrix

(Source: Adapted

from Van Der

Heijden, 1997)

Uncertain

Unimportant

Important

Certain

Topic C

Topic E

Topic B

Topic G

Topic F

Topic D

Topic A