Section ThreeHeuristics, Rules of Thumb, and the
Delphi Technique
Rules of thumb are simple guidelines that are used to predict
demand for human resources. For example, a retailing chain
may have developed a heuristic that specifies that for every 12
new stores, another regional manager will be hired. Heuristics
are conceptual frameworks, often expressed as diagrams,
which help human resource forecasters organize relevant
conceptual relationships and trace through the outcomes of
various personnel action alternatives. Using the retail chain
example, forecasters might consider the strategic plans for the
number of new stores the next year, then apply the heuristic to
forecast the number of regional managers that will be needed.
One common qualitative approach for forecasting the demand
for human resources is the “bottom-up” approach in which unit
managers estimate their specific human resource needs for the
next period. These estimates are then combined into aggregate
forecasts for the whole company.^80 The Delphi technique, an
iterative judgment refinement technique based on the collection
of expert opinion, is sometimes categorized as a qualitative
demand forecasting technique. This technique can approach
the accuracy of quantitative techniques and does not require a
historical database. Nonetheless, the Delphi technique is used
for such purposes by only a very small number of
organizations.^81