The Economist - USA (2022-03-12)

TheEconomistMarch12th 2022 BriefingThewarinUkraine 15

lovedonesinKyiv saythecityisbeing
bombardedby MrPutin,some Russians
stoptheirearsandbelievethetelevision
instead.Butmanydonot.
Oneofthehardestthingstosquarewith
thenarrativeofnormalityisthedeathtoll.
OnMarch2ndRussiaadmitted that 498
troopshaddied.OnMarch8thAmerica’s
DefenceIntelligenceAgencyputthefigure
atbetween2,000and4,000.TheSoviet
Union did not surpass the 2,000­dead
markinAfghanistanuntilmorethana year
afteritsinvasionin1979;ittookAmerica
threeyearstodosoafterinvadingIraq.
Theeconomy,too,ishardtopassoffas
normal.Mostglobalbrandshavequitthe
country,leavingbehindclosedstoresand
thousandsofunemployed Russians(be­
foretheinvasion5%ofRussianswithjobs
workedforforeignfirms).Thegovernment
islookingattakingoverforeignassetsto
keepsomebusinessesgoing. Thestock­
markethascrashed.
Supermarkets have started to ration
foodsales,andanonymisedtrackingdata
fromGoogleindicatethatvisitsto retail
andgrocerysiteshaveincreasedsincethe
invasion,suggestingworriesaboutfuture
supplies—andfuture prices. A real­time
priceindexwhichStateStreetGlobalMar­
kets and PriceStats derive from online
postingsisrisingrapidly.Russianecono­
mistsexpectannualinflationof30­40%.
Thecentralbank,hamperedbysanc­
tionsfromdefendingtherouble,hasseen
itdepreciate by 40%since Januaryand
mostinternationaltravelhasbecomeim­

possible. Disruptionto supply chains is

bringingsomefactoriestoa halt.A boycott

onmaintenanceandsparepartsbyBoeing

andAirbusmaysoonmakea lotmorecab­

increwavailableforchatswiththepresi­

dentbygroundingthecountry’sairlines.

Inthesorryannalsofdamageinflicted

onRussiabyitsrulersthisstandsproud.

The10%annualdropsingdpseeninthe

recessionstriggeredbytheglobalfinancial

crisis and the financial default of 1998

seempossibleantecedents.Butthestruc­

turaldisruptionmay bebigger.The last

timeRussia experiencedsuchrapid,de­

structivechange,accordingtomany,was

intheaftermathoftheSovietUnion’scol­

lapse, whenthemajorityoftoday’sRus­

sianswereeitherchildrenornotyetborn

andthefirmsnowleavinghadnotarrived.

Anall-timegreat

Inpoliticalandsocialtermsitmaybenec­

essarytogobackalmosta centurytofinda

parallel:to1929,whenStalinliquidatedthe

entrepreneurial class to consolidate his

power.MrPutin’swarwasnotdeliberately

engineeredtodestroytoday’surban,edu­

cated middle class. But the people and

firmsitharmsmostarethosemostinte­

gratedintotheglobaleconomy,andthus

thoseforwhich,ingeneral,hehasleast

sympathy.

Theharmdonetothemgoesfarbeyond

thefinancial.GoneistvRain,the“opti­

misticchannel”,asitbrandeditself;gone

aretheholidaysinEuropeandtheiPhones

andthetripstoikea. Gone,too,istheillu­

sionofRussiaasa countrywheredignity

couldbeenjoyedalongsidethoselifestyle

comforts,andwhereitwaspossiblefor

bothtomatter.

Itistenyearssincemembersofthis

classfirstcameoutinprotestagainstMr

Putin.Hissubsequentshiftfromareign

basedoneconomicsuccesstoonejustified

by national grandeur papered over the

crackssomewhat:witnessthepopularity

ofhisannexationofCrimeain2014.But

after that thecontradiction betweenan

increasingly imperialist kleptocracy and

thegrowthofbothbourgeoislifestylesand

civilsocietybecameevermoreacute.Alex­

eiNavalny,Russia’sjailedoppositionlead­

er,wasridingthewaveofthisurbanmid­

dleclass’sdisaffectionwhenMrPutinhad

himpoisonedin2020.Havingfailedtorid

RussiaofMrNavalny,heisnowriddingher

ofthepeoplewhosupportedhim.

Thatsaid,thewarhasconsolidatedMr

Navalny’s oppositionmovement andex­

pandeditbeyonditspreviouscore.“Noto

war”isnowtheonlysloganthatmatters,

onewhichspeakstosurvivalratherthan

politicalpreference.MrPutin’smuchre­

hearseddevotiontoRussiangreatnessal­

lowshimtotapa largereservoirofpatrio­

tism.Hiswarhasnosuchstanding.

MrNavalny’steam,operatingfromout­

sidethecountry,hasaccordinglythrown

allitsresourcesbehindtheanti­wareffort,

a movewhichgivesthemaccesstoa much

broaderbase.Andbychoosingtodown­

playtheinvasionasa merespecialopera­

tion,MrPutininitiallydeniedhimselfthe

Chernihiv

Chernobyl

Prybirsk

Ivankiv

Makariv

Irpin

Hostomel

Nizhyn

Brovary

Kyiv

Antonov

Airport UKRAINE

BELARUS

Dneiper

Russian

Convoy

40 km

AssessedRussianadvances*

AssessedRussian-controlled

March th

*Russiaoperatedinorattacked, but does not control

Source:InstitutefortheStudyof War

The encirclement of Kyiv

Russiastruggledtoamassenoughtroops

toencirclethecapitalfromthenorth-

west,westandeast.Ukrainerepulsed

severalattacksonMarch8thand9th,and

madeplanstoblowupbridgesaroundthe

citytoslowtheRussianadvance.

Russian consumerprices,Jan1st2022=
104

102

100

Jan Feb Mar

↑ As its troops moved towards the

capital, Russia fired on the only escape

route available to civilians in Irpin.