The Economist - USA (2022-03-12)

TheEconomistMarch12th 2022 43

Europe

PolandandNATO

The frontline state

P

olish leadershave long pushed their

partners  in  natoand  the  euto  forge

closer  ties  with  Ukraine, warning  of  the

risk of Russian aggression, only to be dis­

missed  as  paranoid.  Russia’s  murderous

and  unprovoked  invasion  of  Ukraine  has

proven them entirely right. Polish denun­

ciations  of  Russia’s  imperial  ambitions,

which  Americans  and  western  Europeans

once  pooh­poohed  as  post­communist

stress disorder, have now become standard

natotalking  points.  But  it  is  not  just  Po­

land’s  view  of  Russia  that  is  being  taken

more  seriously;  it  is  Poland’s  role  in  the

world. In a matter of a few weeks, the coun­

try has become the linchpin of the Western

effort to defend Ukraine and deter Russia, a

task as important as it is dangerous.

Hundreds  of  Stinger  missiles,  Javelin

anti­tank  weapons  and  other  munitions

have already poured into Ukraine through

Poland  and  Romania,  part  of  America’s

$350m  package  to  assist  the  besieged

country.  Poland  itself  has  dispatched  an

ammunition convoy to Ukraine, and plans

to  send  mortars,  small  drones  and  man­

portable  missile  systems,  known  as  man-

pads, from its ownsupplies.Weaponsde­

liveries  from  othercountries,includinga

€450m ($490m) consignmentfinancedby

the  eu,  are  on  theway,too.“Thebiggest

share  of  military  equipment,bothlethal

and  non­lethal,  willgothroughPoland,”

says  Konrad  MuzykaofRochanConsult­

ing,  a  military­analysis firm.“Like it or

not,” says StanislawKoziej,a formerbriga­

dier­general  in  Poland’sarmy,“wearego­

ing  to  be  the  mainlinkinthechaincon­

nectingUkraineandtheWest.”

Polandisnearertheeyeofthestorm

thananyothernatomember.It risksbeing

drawn in further. For days the country

mootedgivingitsMiG­29fighterjetstoUk­

raineinexchangeforF­16sfromAmerica.

TheAmericans,whoinitiallypushedthe

plan,balkedwhenPolandaskedtosend

thejetsviaanAmericanairbaseinGerma­

ny.OnMarch9ththeybackedout,saying

transferringthejetsriskedescalation.Po­

landwantstodoasmuchaspossible,say

officialsinWarsaw,withoutbeingdragged

intothewar.

ThecrisishasalsoturnedPoland,al­

mostovernight,intothecountrywiththe

second­largestrefugeepopulationinEu­

rope.Atleast2mpeoplehaveescapedUk­

rainesincethestartoftheinvasion,the

mostextensiveandrapidmovementofref­

ugeesinEurope’spost­warhistory.Over

1.3mhavereachedPoland.Thecountryhas

copedremarkablywellwiththeinflux.But

itsresourcesarestretched.

PolandwasalreadyhometoEurope’s

largest Ukrainian diaspora, over a million

strong,  and  so  is  an  important  recruiting

ground for Ukraine’s resistance. In the first

ten  days  of  the  war,  Polish  border  guards

recorded 217,000 crossings into Ukraine. A

large share were Ukrainians heading back

home  to  fight.  “Our  people  are  waiting,”

says  Aleksandr,  who  arrived  at  the  border

by bus from Estonia. “They’re going to tell

us  what  to  do,  give  us  ammunition  and

guns, and then we’re off to work.”

Poland’s  size,  location  and  infrastruc­

P RZEMYSL

Poland gets used to its new role as a strategic linchpin

→Alsointhissection

44 Erdogan’schallenger

45 France’selection

45 PropagandainHungary

46 Charlemagne:Welcomingrefugees

Chisinau

Warsaw

UKRAINE

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

BELARUS

HUNGARY

SLOVAKIA

POLAND

Krakow Kyiv

Przemysl Lv i v

Rzeszow

150 km

EU