54 China The Economist March 19th 2022
Chinatweaksitscovidstrategy
F
or mostof the covid19 pandemic, a bargain based on tough
love has bonded China’s rulers and people. Leaders have im
posed tight controls on an unlucky minority—meaning anyone
hapless enough to cross paths or live near someone with covid, or
even to be a close contact of these close contacts. Such unfortu
nates face being quarantined for days or weeks. Right now main
land China is enduring its first big outbreak of the Omicron var
iant, and the ranks of the unlucky have grown rapidly. At least 40m
people are under some form of lockdown, including an entire
province, Jilin. The southern metropolis of Shenzhen confined
most residents to their homes except for trips to buy food, though
it prefers the term “life on pause” to “lockdown”. Some border cit
ies have spent months cut off from the rest of China.
In return for those sacrifices by the unlucky, a majority of Chi
na’s 1.4bn people have spent most of the pandemic leading rela
tively normal lives. As a result, it is common to hear ordinary folk
praise strict covid controls. Even now, reported case numbers re
main low by global standards, with about 3,000 new infections de
tected nationwide on March 15th, compared with 26,000 found on
the same day in America. Keeping China mostly covidfree has
cost residents a good deal of privacy. Those with smartphones
must scan qrcodes to enter public buildings or catch a taxi, train
or domestic flight. The simplest walk in the park is logged by
movementtracking publichealth apps installed on those same
phones. The costs also include isolation from the world, for China
has all but closed its borders for nearly two years.
Still, Chinese leaders are not shy about proclaiming this strat
egy, which they call their “dynamic zerocovid” policy, an act of
love. They say it is proof that the Communist Party cares for all its
people. They contrast China with countries such as America that
have chosen to “live with covid” in the name of individual liber
ties, amid horrifying numbers of deaths. The party’s love has a pa
ternalist edge. Because officials risk the sack for cases found on
their watch, they compete to invent everstricter rules. Like over
protective parents, authorities havetreated suspected cases as
medical emergencies. Anyone who develops a fever, for any rea
son, is meant to head to a fever clinic for hours of coviddetecting
nasal swabs, chest scans and blood tests.Withthe party’s governing legitimacy bound up with keeping
China covidfree and death numbers very low, leaders have to date
rejected suggestions that they will have to change course, espe
cially if that advice comes from foreigners. After inspecting pop
up quarantine clinics in Jilin, Sun Chunlan, a deputy prime minis
ter, told officials to grit their teeth and “win the battle of epidemic
prevention, control and eradication”. For all the defiant talk, there
are signs that the authorities are ready to adjust their methods.
Success in this endeavour comes with preconditions. Most impor
tant, to avoid a political crisis at home China will have to avoid the
high death rates currently seen in its semiautonomous territory
of Hong Kong. The virus has exacted a grim toll on the city’s unvac
cinated old people, a category that is also dangerously large in the
mainland. Even if China can avoid mass fatalities, the whole pop
ulation is going to experience the pandemic differently. If China’s
covid bargain is to survive the Omicron strain, the public will have
to accept a version that feels more tough and less loving.
Many Chinese are strikingly frightened of catching covid, after
so many months of reports about pandemic deaths in the selfish,
decadent West. The disease carries a stigma that extends beyond
its impact on health. People who test positive know that many
neighbours and work colleagues, and perhaps their child’s school
mates, too, will be quarantined on their account.
Yet Omicron spreads so fast that tracking systems are flagging
too many close contacts to fit into hospitals. New guidelines from
the National Health Commission duly state that patients with
mild symptoms will be monitored in isolation sites, rather than in
clinics or hospitals. In the name of treatment rather than preven
tion, China has approved an antiviral medicine, Paxlovid, made by
an American firm, Pfizer. Netizens have responded with panic,
tinged with nationalism. An alarmist blog post by a student at Jilin
Agricultural Science and Technology University declared that
youngsters were “waiting to die” after being told to quarantine to
gether amid a covid scare. It was viewed hundreds of millions of
times. Reports of Paxlovid’s approval drew angry comments about
its foreign origins, such as one asking: “900,000 Americans died
from covid, is this medicine any good?”When the party’s scare tactics work too well
Officials are not becoming less strict. During recent lockdowns,
some people faced quarantine for receiving a package sent from a
city with cases, for instance. But officials are sounding less toler
ant of some fears. Health chiefs have called for greater efforts to
get the elderly vaccinated, noting that twothirds of Chinese with
severe covid are aged over 60, and twothirds of those sick mature
folk have not had jabs. AntiWestern propaganda does not help: of
ficial media have repeatedly cast doubt on the safety of mrna
shots used abroad. To date only Chinesemade vaccines have been
approved in the country. Although they offer decent protection
against severe disease and death, they do not prevent infection—
and thus do little to stop the virus spreading.
Public fear has suited officials, helping to drive compliance
with disruptive controls. Omicron poses a new test, being more
contagious but less lethal than earlier variants. If authorities are
not ready to open the country, they will need millions of Chinese
to feel safe if told to isolate while mildly ill but not in a hospital. To
achieve an exit strategy one day, they will need the public to trust
potent, imported treatments. After shamefully concealingthe
start of this pandemic, Chinese officials acted like stern parents
for two years. Now, they need to treat their people like adults.nChaguan
Beating the Omicron variant will require more vaccinations and less fear