Saddam Hussein of Iraqthat when Saddam is backed into a corner, his customary prudence
and judgment are apt to falter. On these occasions he can be danger-
ous to the extreme—violently lashing out with all resources at his
disposal. The persistent calls for regime change may well be moving
him into that dangerous "back against the wall" posture. The setting
afire of the Kuwaiti oil fields as he retreated in 1991 is an example
that might well be repeated with his own Iraqi oil fields, as if to say,
"If I can't have them no one will." Moreover, with his back to the
wall it is probable that he would attempt to use chemical/biological
weapons against Israel and against U.S. armed forces in the region.
The question then will be the degree to which he can continue to
sustain the loyalty of his senior military commanders or whether
they can be induced to disobey Saddam in extremis in order to safe-
guard their own futures. Of one thing we can be sure, this is a man
who "will not go gentle into that good night, but will rage, rage
against the dying of the light."
Notes- This assessment is an updated and expanded version of a profile "Saddam
Hussein of Iraq: A Political Psychology Profile" by Jerrod M. Post, M.D., pre-
sented in testimony to hearings on the Gulf crisis by the House Armed Services
Committee on December 5, 1990, and of the House Foreign Affairs Committee
on December 12, 1990. - This section, "Why Saddam Did Not Withdraw from Kuwait," is drawn
from "Saddam Hussein: Afterword," Political Psychology 12, no. 4 (1991):
723-25- - This section, "Saddam after the Conflict," draws extensively from
Amatza Baram, Building toward Crisis: Saddam Husayn's Strategy for Survival
(Washington, DC: Institute for Near East Policy, 1998). - Al-Hayat (London), June 18, 2001, 2, in Foreign Broadcast Information
Service, FBIS-NES GMP 2001 0618000048, June 18, 2001. - For details of the period 1991—98 see Baram, Building toward Crisis,
87-96. - HaAretz, February i, 2001.
- MEN A Report (Middle East and North Africa business report), May 27,
2002, MENAreport.com. - Iraq Press, June 25, 2002.
- Turkish Daily News, June 26, 2002.
- Anatolia, November 2, 2001.