32 Europe The Economist March 26th 2022
We needtotalkaboutthermostats
A
t last, the spring. For months Europeans have lived with the
threat of losing the Russian gas that keeps their homes warm.
The prospect seems less daunting now that daffodils are bloom
ing. But despite the seasonal serenity, a wrenching energy transi
tion is under way. Europe wants to cut imports of gas from Russia
by twothirds within a year. Behind the scenes, politicians and
companies are already scrambling to work out how to cope next
winter. The obvious upshot, one might expect, would be a change
in consumer behaviour not seen since the 1970s, when dizzying oil
prices caused a rethink of how the West lived. Not so. While Euro
pean leaders exude an air of wartime concern, the public is living
as if nothing were amiss in a continent at peace.
Energy prices, whether of petrol, gas or electricity, have rocket
ed in Europe. Some people might barely have noticed. In France,
the authorities have essentially capped electricity and gas bills. It
aly on March 18th added €4.4bn ($4.8bn) in subsidies to limit pow
erprice rises for companies and consumers, on top of the €16bn
already agreed in recent months. Several countries have cut petrol
duties, a muchneeded source of tax income. European leaders
meeting in Brussels as The Economistwent to press were due to
discuss new state largesse to households and industry. This is the
“whatever it takes” approach at work. As with covid19, govern
ment is paying first and will ask questions later.
What is startling is how little is being asked of Europeans. Even
simple measures that might barely inconvenience people are
treated as taboo. Earlier this month the International Energy
Agency (iea), which advises richcountry governments, suggested
that Europeans might consider turning down the thermostat by
just one degree centigrade. What might seem like mere virtuesig
nalling greenery would actually cut consumption by 10bn cubic
metres of natural gas over a year. That is roughly one month’s
worth of Russian imports. This modest appeal was relayed by pre
cisely nobody in office.
Some eugovernments want to ban Russian oil, the Kremlin’s
biggest moneyspinner. Yet no one is seriously considering the
obvious way of using less of it. Lowering motorway speed limits
by 10kph would trim fuel use in the rich world by around 15%, not
to be scoffed at when Europe is scrambling for any hydrocarbons itcanget.Throwinsubsidiesto boost the use of public transport, a
plea to work from home one day a week where possible and a ban
on car use in cities on Sundays, and Europe could save perhaps a
fifth of the Russian oil it imports, according to ieafigures and
Charlemagne’s guesswork. These may or may not be sensible
ideas. The point is that they are not being discussed.
Why is Europe not rediscovering the spirit of the 1970s? Back
then the European public was expected to accept some discomfort
and inconvenience. Speed limits went from the exception to the
norm (except on German autobahns, of course). Dutch and Ger
man cities were among those that went pedestrian one day a week.
France decreed public buildings should be no warmer than 20°C,
two degrees lower than today’s European average. Television
broadcasting was shut off at 11pm, an idea that could usefully be
revived for social media. Daylightsaving schemes adopted during
the world wars were soon revived across the continent. “Whatever
it takes” involved people donning jumpers.
Lots of ideas to cut back energy use tomorrow are being moot
ed. But few Europeans are even being nudged to use less energy to
day. One reason may be that the rich world has changed in 50
years. Past crises have helped make modern economies more en
ergy efficient. The current oil and gas shock is not so painful, espe
cially since the world has become used to seesawing crude prices.
But recent history outside Europe suggests that rapid change is
possible. After Japan shut down its nuclear plants in the aftermath
of the Fukushima disaster in 2011, a publicinformation campaign
beseeched people to cut back energy use. Trains were slowed, air
conditioners were turned down and employers moved shifts to
save power. A similar campaign is nowhere to be seen in Europe. Keep cool
The absence of such measures reflects three factors. The first is
that Europe may not truly be committed to weaning itself off Rus
sian hydrocarbons. More storage of gas at eulevel, as looks likely
to be agreed, could dent Russia’s stranglehold on Europe. Some
might think that will solve the problem, at least if the war ends
soon. Keeping the option, if not the necessity, of importing Rus
sian gas would avoid a painful pivot away from cheap power.
Second, energy is a politically toxic topic. The mere mention of
speed limits or dearer petrol triggers accusations of urban politi
cians ignoring the plight of cardependent provincial folk. Span
ish farmers are protesting about energy prices. France’s president,
Emmanuel Macron, wants no more gilets jaunes protests ahead of
an election next month. Europe is on a glide path to “net zero”
emissions, to which the Ukraine crisis has given fresh impetus.
Sensible longterm policy might be derailed by rash shortterm
measures in reaction to transient (albeit traumatic) events.
The third, and most depressing, possibility is that politicians
now think their electorates are incapable of sacrifice. Two years of
pandemicera nagging has tested the public enough. The end of
covid19 restrictions (if not the virus itself ) was meant to presage a
new Roaring Twenties. That is no time for hairshirt preachiness.
“A Europe that protects” is a recent Brussels mantra: citizens must
not be inconvenienced by a changing world.
This is a shame. Ukrainians are daily making sacrifices on an
extraordinary scale. A growing number of Europeans are opening
their homes to them and making donations. The public mood in
Europe is of defiance towards Vladimir Putin. Nobodyneedsa pol
itician’s blessing to lower the thermostat or skip a flight.But it is
depressing that none of them has even thought to ask.nCharlemagne
Weaning Europe off Russian energy will mean big changes. But apparently not for citizens