The Economist - UK (2022-03-26)

TheEconomistMarch26th 2022 Asia 51

CentralAsiaandUkraine

SilentStans

I

t wasoncepart oftheSovietUnion,

shares along border with Russiaand

countsamongitscitizensa largeethnic­

Russianminority.Russiannationalistslay

claimtoswathesofitsterritoryandPresi­

dentVladimirPutinhasinthepastcastas­

persionsonitsstatehood.GennadyZyuga­

nov,theleaderofRussia’sCommunistPar­

ty,hasaccuseditofRussophobiaandthe

oppression of Russian­speakers. Little

wonderthenthatKazakhstaniswatching

MrPutin’sinvasionofUkrainewithappre­

hensionvergingonhorror.

Thewarhassetnervesjanglingacross

CentralAsia.The“Stans”,astheregion’s

five post­Soviet states are known, are,

broadlyspeaking,alliesofRussia.Butthe

aggressiveexpansionism oftheirformer

colonialmasteristestingthatfriendship

tothelimit.Noneofthecountrieshascon­

demnedtheinvasion.Butnorhasanyof­

feredpublicsupportorsuccumbedtopres­

suretofollowMrPutin’sleadandrecog­

nisethebreakawayregionsofLuhanskand

DonetskineasternUkraine.Ata voteinthe

unGeneralAssemblydeploringtheinva­

sion,onMarch2nd,threeabstainedand

twosimplydidnotshowup.

Kazakhstan,thebiggestandrichestof

thelot,haslongcultivatedwarmrelations

withRussia.Itisa memberofa collective­

securitytreatywithitsbiggerneighbour,

alongwitha handfulofothercountriesin­

cludingKyrgyzstanandTajikistan.InJanu­

ary,whenprotestsinseveralcitiesturned

violentandthreatenedtodestabilisethe

country, Kassym­Zhomart Tokayev, Ka­

zakhstan’spresident,invokedthetreaty’s

mutual­defenceclauseandaskedforhelp

fromMrPutin,whodulydelivered.Butthe

countryalsoenjoysgoodrelationswiththe

WestandhasnodesiretojoinRussiaasan

internationalpariah.MrTokayevhassaid

thathispriorityistosafeguardKazakh­

stan’s“security,sovereignty,territorialin­

tegrity”.HeistheonlyCentralAsianleader

to have spoken to Volodymyr Zelensky,

Ukraine’spresident,sincetheinvasionbe­

gan.(HehasregularchatswithMrPutin.)

Hehasofferedtomediate.

Mostcountriesaretreadinga fineline.

AuthoritiesinAlmaty,Kazakhstan’slargest

city, have allowed anti­war protests—

thoughonlyonce—andKazakhpolicehave

fineddriversdisplayingtheletterZ,a sym­

bolofMrPutin’sinvasion.Yettwobloggers

knownforanti­Russianrhetorichavebeen

jailed, too. Uzbekistan has supported

Ukraine’sterritorialintegrityanddeclined

torecognisethebreakawayrepublics.But

ithas alsoleant onjournalists who are

noisilysympathetictoUkraine.

Kyrgyzstan,whichhostsa Russianmil­

itary base, hascome closest to offering

(muted)supportforRussia.MrPutin’srec­

ognition of Luhansk and Donetsk may

havebeen“anecessarymeasuretoprotect

thecivilianpopulation”,musedSadyrJa­

parov,thepresident,onFacebook.Butthat

was beforetheinvasion. Sincethen his

publicstancehasbeenoneofneutrality.

Uppermostinhismindmaybetheposi­

tionofmillionsofKyrgyzmigrantswork­

inginRussia.Thatisalsoa concernforre­

mittance­dependentTajikistan,whichhas

maintaineda studiedsilence.Sohasisola­

tionist Turkmenistan, which barely ac­

knowledgeswhatishappeningintheout­

sideworldandisinanycasebusyestab­

lishinga politicaldynastyasSerdarBerdy­

mukhamedov,itsnewpresident,assumes

powerfromhisfather,Gurbanguly.

Whatever their leaders’ diplomatic

manoeuvres,it willbehardfortheStansto

avoidtheeconomicfallout.The rouble’s

collapse hasdraggeddowntheircurren­

cies.TheKyrgyzstanisomhasplungedby

15%sincetheinvasionstartedandtheKaz­

akhstanitengeby14%.Inpart,thatisbe­

causeremittancesfromRussiaarelikelyto

slump,too:bya thirdinKyrgyzstananda

fifthinTajikistan,reckonstheWorldBank.

Thatwillhurt.Remittancesareworthnear­

lya thirdofgdpinKyrgyzstanandovera

quarterofgdpinTajikistan.

Kazakhstan,TurkmenistanandUzbek­

istanareenergy­richandmayhopetocash

inonbuoyantoilandgasprices.Buteven

thatcan be held hostage.Russia saysa

pipeline,whichcrossesitsterritorytothe

BlackSeaandcarriesmostKazakhoil,may

closeforrepairsfortwomonths.Themove

isseenbymanyasa responsetosanctions,

with Kazakhstan as collateral damage.

“ThereisthisfamoussayingthatifRussia

sneezes,Kazakhstangetsa cold,”saysa se­

niorKazakhofficial.“Thiswillbe nota

sneezebut perhapspneumonia, andwe

willgetcovidorsomething.” n

A LMATYANDTASHKENT

SupportforVladimirPutin’sinvasion

hasbeenconspicuousbyitsabsence

UZB

EKI

STA

N

Dushanbe

Tashkent

Bishkek Almaty

Novorossiysk

Nur-Sultan

Novosibirsk Krasnoyask

Tehran Ashgabat

Kyiv

Baku

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

IRAN

IRAQ

TURKEY

SYRIA

UKRAINE

GEORGIA

AZER.

ARM.

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTAN

Caspian CHINA

Sea

Yekaterinburg

Aral

Sea

TURK

MEN

ISTA

N

Donetsk and Luhansk

(partially controlled by

pro-Russian separatists)

Ukrainian

territory

annexed

byRussia

Black Oil pipeline

Sea

500 km

SouthKorea

Yoon’s first move

A

rranged in twostraight lines as if in

formation,  protesters  outside  South

Korea’s  defence  ministry  pumped  their

fists in time with a martial beat. “How ma­

ny livelihoods are going to be killed by this

move?”  one  demonstrator  shouted.  Ordi­

narily they would be found in Gwanghwa­

mun,  a  wide  plaza  a  few  hundred  metres

from the presidential palace, known as the

Blue House after the azure tiles on its soar­

ing roof. But news that Yoon Suk­yeol, the

president­elect, wants to move the admin­

istration  to  the  ministry  complex,  a  few

miles south, had brought them to its gates. 

Mr Yoon revealed his decision at a press

conference  two  days  earlier,  on  March

20th.  He  described  the  Blue  House,  nes­

tling at the foot of an imposing mountain

and  sequestered  behind  security  barri­

cades and a long driveway, as an “isolated

royal  palace”  and  a  “symbol  of  imperial

power”. Instead, the man from the conser­

vative  People  Power  Party  plans  to  bring

power closer to said people upon his inau­

guration on May 10th. An existing building

within the defence ministry’s grounds is to

be converted into the presidential office (a

residence  has  yet  to  be  decided).  A  new

park will be built around it, giving citizens

a view of their government hard at work. It

is  in  keeping  with  Mr  Yoon’s  victory­

speech  promise  to  “listen  to  the  valuable

opinions of the people”.

The people’s opinion is that it is a waste

of money and a risk to national security. Mr

Yoon’s transition team estimates the price

tag at just under 50bn won ($40m). But that

S EOUL

The president-elect wants to be close to

the people. They would rather not