The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

The Economist April 2nd 2022 21

Britain

NorthernIreland

So close, so far

F

or irishnationalists,  the  border  that

has sliced through the island of Ireland

since  1921  is  a  scar  of  British  colonialism.

For  unionists,  it  delineates  Northern  Ire­

land’s  distinct  British  identity.  The  two

sides settled into an uneasy peace after the

Good Friday Agreement of 1998. Then came

Brexit,  and  an  awkward  fix  in  the  form  of

the Northern Ireland protocol, designed to

avoid inflaming the old dispute. Now some

hope, and others fear, that it will strength­

en the all­island economy and speed polit­

ical reunification. The reality is more com­

plicated—and more fraught.

Before  the  Brexit  referendum,  support

was strong in Northern Ireland for the sta­

tus  quo.  But  the  administration  in  Stor­

mont created by the Good Friday deal failed

to  provide  good  government.  It  has  col­

lapsed  repeatedly  as  one  side  or  the  other

withdraws in a huff, leaving Northern Ire­

land  to  be  governed  from  Westminster  or

administered by local civil servants. Politi­

cians  shy  away  from  tough  decisions,

blaming  Westminster  for  their  problems

while relying on it for hefty subsidies. 

Britain’s vote to leave the European Un­

ion  jolted  this  suboptimal  equilibrium.

Northern  Ireland  voted  to  remain,  and  its

politicians  were  ill­prepared  for  the  fall­

out. The United Kingdom’s departure from

the eu’s customs union and single market

meant  new  customs  and  regulatory  barri­

ers.  Neither  the  eu nor  Britain’s  govern­

ment  wanted  them  on  the  island  of  Ire­

land, for fear that border infrastructure be­

came a flashpoint. And so the protocol al­

lowed  goods  to  move  freely  between

Northern Ireland and the Republic, instead

imposing  checks  between  Northern  Ire­

land and Great Britain.

Alternative Ulster

The  British  government,  however,  has

been slow to implement the barriers it had

agreed to, not least because it denied there

would be any. It has repeatedly delayed im­

plementation, as well as showering traders

with subsidies, for example by paying to is­

sue health certificates for animal products

going  into  Northern  Ireland.  On  March

28th Brandon Lewis, the Northern Ireland

secretary,  said  the  protocol  was  “not  sus­

tainable”  in  its  current  form.  Boris  John­

son, the prime minister, has threatened to

trigger  Article  16,  which  would  allow  Brit­

ain  to  ditch  parts  of  the  deal—and  almost

certainly bring retaliation from the eu.

One  consequence  is  that  Northern  Ire­

land’s politics is becoming more fractious.

In  February  Paul  Givan  of  the  Democratic

Unionist  Party  (dup),  the  biggest  of  those

supporting  the  link  with  Britain,  vacated

the  position  of  first  minister  in  protest  at

the Irish Sea border, thereby collapsing the

power­sharing administration. At first the

party  had  reluctantly  accepted  the  proto­

col, but now says it will not return to gov­

ernment as long as the border remains.

On the island of Ireland, unionists have

always been a minority. That helps explain

their  insecurity  and  unease  at  anything

that  weakens  Northern  Ireland’s  ties  with

Britain and strengthens those with the Re­

public. In recent years the dup has moved

closer  to  the  position  of  its  fiercest  critic

within  the  unionist  camp,  Jim  Allister,

who left the dup in 2007 to found the hard­

line  Traditional  Unionist  Voice  party.  He

regards the Irish Sea border as intended to

redirect  Northern  Ireland’s  trade  with  the

island  of  Britain  towards  the  Republic,  as

the precursor to a united Ireland. Northern

Ireland, he says, has moved into “a waiting

room for Irish unity”.

Others  agree  that  the  protocol  brings

unification  closer—but  see  that  as  wel­

come.  Ever  since  the  ira forswore  terror­

ism, its political wing, Sinn Fein, has pur­

sued a two­pronged strategy: press for ref­

erendums  on  reunification  on  both  sides

of  the  border  and  in  the  meantime  har­

monise  policy  as  much  as  possible,  in  or­

der to make unity look less daunting.

B ELFAST AND DUBLIN

The Good Friday deal was supposed to defer the issue of Irish unity while

old wounds healed. Then came Brexit

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— Bagehot is away