200 Franz nuscheler
restrictive attitude compared with the case of the civil-war refugees from
the Balkans in the 1990s.
By the end of 2012, only about 5 per cent of the Iraqi refugees (i.e., about
200,000) had reached Europe and other Western countries, which had
established high barriers to a possible growing inf lux of migrants. The
preferential treatment of Christians demanded by the Western churches
and Christians stands in conf lict with the terms of the Geneva Convention
on Refugees, which expressly forbids any discrimination (positive or nega-
tive) on the basis of religious aff iliation.
To date it is unclear whether the present Iraqi government, following the
complete withdrawal of US troops, will be able to check the disintegration
of the Iraqi state and stop the civil war. Thus, it is also unclear whether the
Iraqi refugees will be able to return or whether the pressure to migrate to
Europe will continue. The more the overwhelmed neighbour states try to
block the inf lux of new refugees by setting up strict border and immigration
controls – and the more they demand the repatriation of refugees to a
still-war-torn country – the more Europe must reckon with a continued or
increasing inf low of refugees from Iraq in the next few years, particularly
since Syria can no longer serve as a regional buffer.
The other Arab states in the region have done little to contribute to an
intraregional solution to this refugee problem. Some, such as Kuwait and Saudi
Arabia, have strictly refused to accept any Iraqi refugees, especially the Shiites
and Christians among them, whereas others (such as Egypt) reacted in as
reserved a manner as the EU countries and the US. This makes a regionalisa-
tion of the problem impossible and exposes Europe to further migration.
The future of Iraq remains an element of uncertainty in the entire con-
f lict and migration situation in this region, which will inevitably spread to
Turkey and the rest of Europe. These problems make the construction of
scenarios that attempt to consider the various possible realities precarious
at the very least.
6.5.2 Syria: The agony of a further dictatorship
While uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen were forcing regime
changes, Syria seemed to be an anchor of stability in the region. Despite its
own considerable problems with infrastructure and supply, it had managed
to absorb approximately 1.5 million refugees from Iraq and thus helped to
avoid their further exodus to Europe. The violent repression of the local
protests against the dictatorial Assad regime, however, not only worsened
the conditions of these refugees, but also drove almost 1.8 million Syr-