The uncerTainTies involved in calculaTing migraTion 201
ians across the border, particularly into neighbouring Turkey, Jordan and
Lebanon. By July 2013, roughly 600,000 Syrian refugees were stranded in
small Lebanon alone, greatly overstretching the capacities of the country
(UNHCR 2013a).
Due to the intensifying military conf lict between the Assad regime –
provided with weapons by Russia and Iran – and the various rebel groups
- supplied with money and weapons by several Arab states (mainly Saudi
Arabia and Qatar) and supported with diplomatic and humanitarian as-
sistance from Western countries, the UNHCR (2013a) expects that more than
3 million refugees will have crossed into neighbouring states by the end of
2013, unless a political solution is found and an internationally f inanced
programme for the reconstruction of the destroyed cities is established.
Also, according to UNHCR (2013b), there were more than 2.5 million In-
ternally Displaced Persons (IDPs) seeking refuge and a secure livelihood
in ever-worsening circumstances in 2013. Repatriation of the refugees and
IDPs will be a huge challenge for the international community.
Syria became the acid test for the ability of the UN to act in accordance
with its Charter. In its Security Council, the veto powers blocked each
other, as they did during the Cold War, at the expense of the Syrian popula-
tion suffering from the disintegration of its country. The responsibility to
protect that was established in 2005 and obliges the nation states and the
international community to protect the civilian population from fear and
need thus became a toothless tool.
6.5.3 The Middle East conf lict at the centre of the regional conf lict
and migration
It is not the intention of this chapter to work through the results of the many
studies about the origin, course and regional/international implications of
the Arab-Israeli conf lict. The endemic ‘structural peacelessness’, as strong
today as it ever was, is the result of two peoples laying claim to the same
territory of Palestine; of an imbalance of military superiority and inferiority;
and of political and economic dominance and dependence.
The state of Israel originated from migration, and the story of its for-
mation is one of the partially voluntary and partially forced exodus of
Palestinians from Palestine to the neighbouring Arab states; their right to
return to Palestine is the disputed and to-date-unsolved subject of all peace
negotiations. Their massive migration to the Gulf states and other parts of
the world is one reason why Palestinians in the refugee camps and in the
two (divided) settlement zones on the West Bank and in the Gaza Strip