The uncerTainTies involved in calculaTing migraTion 205
securit y and development – which lent greater importance to the political,
social and ecological uncertainties:
The inequality in distribution caused by existing elite structures and
authoritarian regimes will continue and indeed be exacerbated in the
coming ten to f ifteen years because of the ecological erosion, caused
amongst others by the expected climate changes in the region, and the
consequences of economic liberalisation. The results will be growing
migration from rural to urban areas, transnational migration and social
unrest, all of which may f ind expression in radical opposition to repres-
sive political systems (Houdret, Kievelitz & Mumenthaler 2008: 39).Applied to Morocco, this means political conf licts could shake those scenarios
which assume that Morocco will turn from a country of emigration into one of
immigration. Political stability could also be greatly strained by uncontrolled
(and uncontrollable) waves of migration from sub-Saharan Africa. The EU
has invested great sums in enabling Morocco to establish a forward defence
against irregular transit migration, but experience shows that stricter control
of the long borders with the South, better domestic control of movement and
the quick deportation of apprehended migrants (without regard to interna-
tional human-rights standards) tend to have only a limited effect and may,
in fact, raise the spectre of a police state. It also does not harmonise very well
with the legal and human-rights postulates otherwise championed by the EU.
6.7 Conclusions
Migration potential stemming from domestic conf licts cannot be predicted
with any reasonable level of accuracy, but examples from the recent past
do allow us to conclude that migration tends to increase rapidly when open
conf licts occur. The probability of migration increases with the conf lict
potential present in the region. However, these conf licts are not necessarily
the product of the ‘Islamist threat’, but rather of a mix of political, socio-
economic and cultural factors, at both the domestic and the international
levels. The migrations resulting from these very different types of conf lict
are perceived as a threat more than an opportunity for continued prosperity
in Europe – even though Europe needs immigration and the nearby MENA
region possesses an excess of workers. Europe’s deep-rooted ‘fear of Islam’
poses an almost insurmountable cultural obstacle to the prevailing of a
more utilitarian viewpoint.