204 Franz nuscheler
indignities, were often simply returned to the desert without regard for
their survival, or were recruited as mercenaries or held as house slaves.
All of this occurred under the eyes of European immigration authorities
and with complete disregard for all regulations surrounding asylum and
human-rights standards. The Italian government under Silvio Berlusconi,
for example, made an agreement with the Libyan regime to allow Italian
commercial vessels and warships to take any boat refugees swept up in the
Mediterranean back to the Libyan shore without initiating asylum proce-
dures. Only after the revolution in Libya did the European Court, in a verdict
of 23 February 2012, repeal this agreement, which, of course, contradicts
all international laws on the treatment of refugees. In July 2013 it was still
unclear how the post-revolutionary rulers in Libya would deal with the
migratory pressures emerging from the Sahel zone. A major factor is how
much help the EU authorities will extend to a transit country for refugees
making their way to Europe. The changes induced by the Libyan revolu-
tion could provide them with the opportunity to establish acceptable and
humanitarian agreements with the new government, which may expect help
as compensation for providing a line of defence against unwanted migrants.
6.6 Uncertain and rather dismal perspectives
A study by the GIGA Institute in Hamburg (Brach 2008) carried out an
econometric analysis of economic development in the MENA region and
the resultant perspectives for the near future. They concluded that it was
not the domestic conf licts and trade barriers that represented the greatest
obstacles to the economic development of the region, but rather the lack of
technological reform and the dominance of economic institutions guided
by rent-seeking. The Arab World Competitiveness Report supported this
thesis (World Economic Forum 2007). The GIGA study made the prognosis
that, in the medium term, neither the authoritative political structures nor
the rent-seeking behaviour would be reformed (Brach 2008: 31). The Arab
Spring did cast doubt on the veracity of the political part of this prediction,
but it did nothing to improve socio-economic perspectives in the region.
One may continue to doubt whether the trade incentives and investment
programmes drawing on monies in the coffers of the planned Mediter-
ranean Union will be able to overcome these structural def icits.
Similar scepticism may be found in the study on the Maghreb by the
Duisburg Institute for Development and Peace (INEF) – entitled Trends in