7 Demographic developments in the
MENA region
Ralf E. Ulrich
7.1 Introduction
The EU and the MENA (Middle East and North African) countries^1 are sepa-
rated only by the Mediterranean Sea. And yet there could hardly be more
demographic and economic differences between two regions. In 2010, the EU
had a population of around 500 million persons, while the MENA states had
over 455 million inhabitants (UNPD 2011a). After 100 years of demographic
transition, the countries of the EU today are characterised by low fertil-
ity, a dwindling population and demographic ageing. This demographic
predicament will precipitate considerable economic and social problems in
the various countries of the EU in the medium and near future. By contrast,
families in the MENA have, on average, twice as many children as families in
the EU, which has led to a substantial increase in the overall population and a
young demographic structure. The great importance of the MENA countries,
however, cannot be measured by their demographics, but by the fact that
two-thirds of the world’s oil reserves are located in this region (Eltigani 2000).
In light of these demographic disparities and geographic proximity, it
would seem logical to study more closely the potential for future migration
from the MENA region to Europe. Future demographic developments in the
MENA region will surely inf luence its migration potential and its economic
perspectives. Nevertheless, the relationship between demographic develop-
ment and migration is not necessarily linear or easy to discern, as the two
following chapters will also show.
This chapter analyses, f irst, the population dynamics of the MENA
region, in particular the three countries chosen for this project – Egypt,
Morocco and Turkey. It also treats past migration patterns. Then we look
at the forecasts for population growth and the effects it will have on future
1 There is no universally accepted def inition of the MENA region. The f igures and projections
in this chapter refer to the following 21 countries as MENA countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti,
Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian areas (West
Bank and Gaza Strip), Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Yemen
and Turkey. The World Bank does not include Turkey in the MENA region. Other def initions of
MENA include countries such as Cyprus, Mauretania and Sudan etc.