210 Ralf E. UlRich
demographic development. Finally, we take a look at the relevance of the de-
mographic developments we have identif ied for future migration potential.
7.2 Population dynamics of the MENA region
7.2.1 Demographic dimensions and characteristics
In 2010 the MENA countries had a population that was nearly as large as
that of the EU: 454.5 million persons and thus 6.6 per cent of the total world
population (UNPD 2011a). The EU-27 had an overall population in 2010 of
500.4 million persons. Egypt, Turkey and Iran are the most populous of the
MENA countries, each with over 70 million inhabitants. On the other hand,
there are small countries like Qatar, Djibouti and Bahrain with fewer than
2 million persons each.
Populations in the countries of the EU-27^2 grew by some 30 per cent over
the past 60 years, whereas the MENA countries had a much larger popula-
tion growth (see Table 7.1). The number of citizens in the MENA region grew
4.4 times from 1950 to 2010, but population growth has been slowing down
since then. Whereas, in the 1950s, the population of the MENA countries
combined grew at an annual rate of 2.5 per cent, today the growth rate has
fallen to only 1.7 per cent per year.
Table 7.1 Population size and change in the EU and the MENA countries
Population in millions Index 2010 Annual increase (%)
1950 2010 1950 =1 1950 2010
EU -27 373.3 500.4 1.3 0.8 0.1
MENa 104.0 454.5 4.4 2.5 1.7
Egypt 21.5 81.1 3.8 2.5 1.8
Morocco 9.0 32.0 3.6 2.4 1.4
Turkey 21.2 72.8 3.4 3.0 1.2Source: UNPD (2011a)
The three countries chosen to be studied in more detail in this project together
have a population of about 185 million persons and thus represent 41 per cent
2 The membership of the European Union (EU-27) has also been used for the historic com-
parisons in this chapter.