212 Ralf E. UlRich
cities. However, the speed with which urbanisation progressed in the MENA
region has been very high, with 63 per cent of the residents currently living
in urban areas. In Egypt the situation is less marked. Here most residents
still reside in rural areas. Turkey, on the other hand, has apparently adapted
to EU standards regarding urbanisation.
7.2.2 Determinants of population dynamics
One reference point for evaluating the demographic dynamic and for
comparing two very different regions is the demographic transition model,
ref lecting the shift from demographic equilibrium with high fertility and
high mortality to one with low mortality and low fertility (Münz & Ulrich
2007). By the middle of the twentieth century, the EU countries had already
reached the fourth stage of demographic transition in which mortality and
fertility were signif icantly reduced. Many MENA countries were or still are
in the third stage of demographic transition, where mortality has receded
but fertility is only just beginning to recede. In general, today, fertility and
mortality in most countries of the MENA region are the most important
factors of population dynamics. Cross-border migration affecting the overall
demographic balance plays a major role in only a very few countries.
Table 7.2 Mortality in the EU and the MENA region
Life expectancy at birth (years) Infant mortality, per 1,000 live
births
1950 2010 1950 2010
EU -27 65.3 79.6 61. 2 4.5
MENa 42.2 72.7 203.3 24.1
Egypt 42 .1 73.0 2 0 7. 9 23.6
Morocco 41.9 71.9 172.6 31.1
Turkey 47. 4 73.7 168.7 21. 5Source: UNPD (2011a)
The last 50 years have seen a considerable convergence between the two
regions with respect to their mortality and fertility rates. Whereas the
difference in life expectancy in 1950 was more than twenty years, today it
lies at around seven years. In 1950 about 20 per cent of all babies died before
their f irst birthday in the MENA region whereas today the f igure lies at
around 2.6 per cent. In the EU, however, infant mortality decreased more
quickly, so that the differential between the two regions has increased.