DEMogRaPhic DEvEloPMENTS iN ThE MENa REgioN 213
In 1950, infant mortality in the MENA countries was 3.3 times that of the
EU-27 countries – today the f igure lies at about f ive times (see Table 7.2).
Within the EU, the decrease in fertility has been dramatic over the last
few decades – from 2.5 to 1.6 children per woman. Yet the fall in the MENA
states was even more dramatic – in 1950 the women of this region bore an
average of seven children, and today that f igure lies at 2.6 (see Table 7.3)!
Table 7.3 Total fertility rates (per woman)
1950 2010
EU 2.5 1.6
MENa 6.8 2.6
Egypt 6.2 2.7
Morocco 7. 2 2.3
Turkey 6.4 2 .1Source: UNPD (2011a)
The Population Division of the United Nations (UNPD) expects mortality in
Europe to continue to slowly decrease, as in past decades, whereas fertility
is expected to gradually rise over the years to come. For the countries of
the MENA region they expect a continuation of the fall in fertility until
- For Turkey, for example, this would mean an overall total fertility
rate of 1.7 children per woman, compared to 2.1 children per woman in the
MENA states.
7.2.3 Migration and refugees
Figure 7.2 gives aggregate estimates – made by the UNPD based on net
migration f igures for individual countries – for the migration balance of
the EU and the MENA region. If we disregard the f luctuations driven by
business cycles and the oil-price-induced recession in the 1970s, there was
a steady rise in the number of immigrants coming to the EU up to 2005.
The MENA region was an emigration area before the price of oil rose in
- The rise of the crude-oil price from US$2 in 1970 to over US$35 in 1980
created a tremendous hiring boom in the building and service industries in
the oil-producing (and -exporting) countries. This meant a large demand
for workers that could be satisf ied only by hiring migrant workers from
neighbouring countries, including the populous countries of the region
without oil reserves of their own (especially Egypt). In 1970, some 1.1 million
foreigners were working in the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation