220 Ralf E. UlRich
situation could ensue because of the Ihsu Dam, which Turkey is planning
as part of its South-East Anatolia Project (Great Anatolia Project or GAP),
and which could be a source of conf lict with Syria and Iraq.
If the population in the region continues to grow, not only will the fresh-
water supply become more diff icult, but the ability of the countries to supply
their citizens with food will also suffer. All countries in the MENA region
have experienced a loss or stagnation of per capita agricultural area in past
decades. In 1975, Turkey had 0.63 hectares available per capita; by 2009, this
f igure had sunk to 0.3 hectares – similar to the situation in Morocco, where it
sank from 0.42 to 0.25 hectares. Intensive agricultural-exploitation methods
might provide some respite but, in light of the limited water resources, the
need to import food to feed the growing population will certainly be one
danger. Financing food imports will be less of a problem for those MENA
countries with their own oil supply; for the others it will remain a major
stress factor.
In this respect, we should also note the population dynamics of the
countries bordering the MENA region to the south. The population of these
nineteen countries grew from 102 million in 1950 to 447 million today (i.e.,
4.4 times as many). According to the population projections of the UN, it
will continue to grow through to 2030 by more than 50 per cent of its present
value – even though the yearly rate of increase is, in fact, on the downturn.
In some of these countries the national basis for supplying food to the still-
quickly increasing population is severely limited. Cultivating the poorer
available soils – combined with desertif ication and other factors – will
probably result in further increases in the price of food in these countries.
7.3.3 The changing age structure: Youth bulge and the demographic
dividend
The rise in population and the changes taking place in the age structure
of the MENA countries are closely related. On the one hand, there is still
great momentum in the pyramid-like age structure of these countries, so
that population growth will not slow down any time soon. The present
generation of children is larger than that of their parents and, even if fewer
children were born to each pair of parents, their greater number in ten to
twenty years will still guarantee that the population will continue to rise
(see Tabutin & Schoumaker 2005; Yousef 2000).
Whereas the EU countries now perceive themselves as quickly becoming
aged societies, the percentage of children and adolescents in the MENA
region is still relatively high.