DEMogRaPhic DEvEloPMENTS iN ThE MENa REgioN 221
Table 7.8 Age group 0–19 years, in millions
Index 2030 % of population
1950 2010 2020 2030 2010 =100 2010 2030
EU 12 3. 8 10 6 .1 10 6 .1 106. 2 10 0.1 21. 2 20.6
MENa 51.6 179. 4 189.0 189. 5 105.6 39.5 31.9
Egypt 10.6 33.4 35.7 35.5 106. 3 41. 2 33.4
Morocco 4.9 12 .1 11. 6 10.9 90.4 37. 9 29.2
Turkey 10.8 25.7 24.8 23.2 90.2 35.3 26.8Source: UNPD (2011a)
The proportion aged 0-19 years in the overall population of the MENA
countries is today nearly double (39.5 per cent) that of the EU. By 2030,
however, it will be on the downturn there as well. In Turkey the absolute
numbers will even be lower: from 25.7 million children and adolescents in
2010 to 23.2 million in 2030. The same is true for Morocco. In all cases this
development ref lects the delayed effect of the lower fertility of the 1990s.
Table 7.9 Youth dependency ratio, people aged 0–19 per 100 persons aged 20–64
1950 2010 2020 2030
EU 5 7. 5 34.6 35.3 37. 0
MENa 106.9 73.9 63.9 55.4
Egypt 103. 2 76.7 67. 5 5 7. 7
Morocco 129. 3 66.9 55.6 48.4
Turkey 109. 5 60.2 50.0 43.3Source: UNPD (2011a)
The so-called youth dependency ratio – the number of children and
adolescents aged 0-19 years per 100 adults aged 20-64 years – has dropped
signif icantly in the EU in recent years as a result of steadily falling fertility
rates. Today there are 35 children and adolescents for every 100 adults aged
20-64. The youth dependency ratio in the MENA states in 1950 was 107 and
thus ran parallel to the high fertility of 6.8 children per women (see Table
7.3). Today, the rate lies at 73.9, which is still twice as high as in the EU but,
by 2030, it will have dropped to 55.4.
The youthful age structure in the countries of the Near East and sub-
Saharan Africa, often referred to as the ‘youth bulge’, has been identif ied as
one reason for violent conf licts or terrorism (e.g., Heinsohn 2008). In fact,