236 Heinz Fassmann
tion rates in turn are derived from the empirically observed emigration per
age group, with respect to the total population in the country of origin.^2
Estimates of this type are thus based on two factors – the future age
structure of the population and future emigration prof iles. Determining
the former is a relatively easy task with the help of existing population
prognoses of relevant institutions such as the United Nations Population
Division (UNPD); it is more diff icult to build reliable assumptions concern-
ing future emigration prof iles.^3 It would appear to be a valid and purposeful
approach to simply transfer present observations of age-specif ic emigration
prof iles to future constellations and situations, as long as such an approach
takes into account the macro-economic and legal conditions. Transferring
present observations of age-specif ic emigration to future situations seems
justif ied since they display a certain regularity, as was shown by Rogers
and Castro (1981).
8.3 Future population
Before estimating migration potential, I provide a general insight into popu-
lation development in the three MENA countries selected as exemplary for
the region in this book: Turkey, Egypt and Morocco (for a general overview
of population development in the whole MENA region in comparison to the
EU-27 and the sub-Saharan countries, see Ulrich in this volume).
Demographic development in Turkey, Egypt and Morocco shows a clear
picture: the population in all three countries is growing (see Table 8.1). In
2015, around 199 million people will be living in the three countries; ten
years later, the population will have increased to 221 million and, by 2050,
254 million people will be residing in Turkey, Egypt and Morocco. The
increase will be the most signif icant in Egypt (+33 per cent for the whole
period) and less pronounced in Turkey (+6 per cent) and Morocco (+5 per
cent). The main drivers of this increase are the young age structure and
2 This is a true rate because – both theoretically and statistically – the emigrants are no
longer part of the original population. Were that the case, one would instead speak of a quota.
3 Assumptions concerning emigration and immigration are always built into a population
prognosis. In order to avoid counting migration twice, potential should be interpreted only
as such. If we were to assume that a specif ic share of this potential does actually leave, then
this value would have to be subtracted from the whole population before calculating the age
structure of the next period. Empirically speaking, however, this sort of limitation never becomes
relevant, since subtracting even the complete migration potential would ef fectively reduce the
population in any one age group by only a few per cent.