estimating migration potential: egypt, morocco and turkey 237
the relatively high fertility in all three countries. The median age is 26.0 in
Egypt, 28.2 in Morocco and 30.2 in Turkey or, in other words, 50 per cent
of the population in Egypt is younger than 26.0 years (or 28.2 and 30.2 in
Morocco and Turkey) which is extremely young compared to countries
like Germany (46.5) or Austria (43.6). In addition, the total fertility rate is
assumed to be 2.46 in Egypt, 2.01 in Morocco and 1.91 in Turkey between
2015 and 2020. Once again, the differences with f ifteen old EU member
states are signif icant (see Ulrich in this volume).
Table 8.1 Entire population 2015 to 2050 (’000)
2015 2020 2025 2030 2050
turkey 7 7, 0 0 3 80,753 83,984 86,665 91, 617
egypt 8 8 ,179 94,810 100,909 106,498 12 3, 452
morocco 33,570 35,078 36,406 3 7, 5 0 2 39,200
tot al 198 ,752 210, 6 41 221, 299 230,665 254,269source: unpd (2011), medium variant; author’s calculations
In the context of migration potential, the working-age population is of
particular interest. A signif icant growth of the working-age population will
increase the inclination to emigrate and vice versa. The medium variant of
the UN prognosis demonstrates a clear tendency (see Table 8.2).
The working-age population in the three countries of the MENA region
under discussion here is around 125 million and is set to increase because of
the age structure and the still relatively high fertility rates. The mid-range
variant of the UN prognosis predicts an increase to 146 million persons of
working age. In other words, the working-age population in these three
MENA countries will increase by 1.3 million every year until 2030, solely
on the basis of the demographic development. This increase will be signif i-
cantly higher in Egypt than in Morocco or Turkey, where birth rates have
begun to fall earlier than in Egypt.
A growing economy should be able to absorb such an increase in the
working-age population by about 1.5 per cent per year (of the working-age
population). The average rate of economic growth in 2009-2011 was 4.2 per
cent in Egypt, 4.2 per cent in Turkey and 4.3 per cent in Morocco (CIA 2012).
One must take into account, however, that the growth of employment must
be less than the overall economic growth so that productivity may rise in
line with international competitiveness. Further, the actual increase in
those persons willing to work may exceed the increase in the working-age
population if the willingness to work and, thus, the actual participation