Migration scenarios: turkey, egypt and Morocco 253
Turkey is characterised by a number of very specif ic cleavages resulting
from its particular history and, especially, from its state-building process
(Lewis 2002). The modern Turkish state grew out of the collapsing Ottoman
Empire and established itself against competing state-building processes
in the neighbouring Balkan states and Greece as well as against the co-
lonial plans of European powers. This process was driven by a reformist
military elite educated in the capitals of Europe (especially in Paris), who
implemented a legal order of Swiss and French origin. It thus established an
off icial laïcism in Turkey, where the overwhelming majority of the popula-
tion was Islamic, and combined this with a nationalisation of religion. In
addition, the major top-down modernisation process linked to Turkish
state-building brought about a new political system, a switch to Latin
writing, a modern educational system – including compulsory school at-
tendance – and industrialisation. The resulting tensions were superf icially
bridged by the mythif ication of the country’s founder – Kemal Atatürk – and
a strong nationalism, and have been ref lected in political conf licts up to
the present day. After introducing a multiparty system in 1946, the military
assumed power three times (in 1960, 1971 and 1980), and the country is still
plagued by the question of whether the military is truly ready and willing
to relinquish its power and decision-making competences. It also remains
to be seen whether Turkey can continue and, indeed, extend the economic
and political reforms that began with the economic liberalisations of the
1980s and the growing orientation toward joining the EU since the 1990s
(customs union in 1995; membership consultations since 2005).
9.3.1 Conditions for the expected migration: Turkey’s economic
situation
Parallel to the many political upheavals, the economic history of Turkey
has, up to the present day, been a veritable roller-coaster ride, marked by a
number of debt crises and periods of high inf lation. Seen from a long-term
perspective, however, the Turkish economy has grown continuously at com-
paratively high average rates (1950s: 6.7 per cent, 1960s: 5.6 per cent, 1970s: 4.1
per cent and an average of 5 per cent per annum since 1980). In the past few
years, Turkey’s high rate of economic growth was combined with a strong
increase in personal income, a reduction in state debt and low inf lation.
Economic sectors, trade and economic policy
Whereas economic policy following the founding of the modern Turkish
state in the 1930s and up to the end of the 1970s was characterised by inward-