254 Michael BoMMes, siMon FellMer and Friederike ZigMann
oriented industrialisation and import substitution policies, from the early
1980s onwards Turkey adopted an export-oriented, open-market policy that
has since been expanded as part of its efforts to join the EU and to meet the
liberalisation demands of the World Bank and the International Monetary
Fund (IMF). The reduced role of the state had a number of effects at the time:
an increase in unemployment due to the extensive privatisation efforts, a
generally lower standard of living, an increase in social inequality and a
decline in social security (Aydın 2005: 43-45).
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
currently sees Turkey on the road to economic prosperity (OECD 2006a). It
describes Turkey as having made substantial progress in macro-economic
stabilisation and institutional reform (see also the progress reports prepared
by the EU as part of the membership negotiations). A satisfactory level of
macro-economic stability has been reached, although the Turkish economy
is still viewed as vulnerable. In this context, and in light of the high depend-
ence on exports, any external shock tends to reverberate throughout the
entire economy.
Whereas the OECD is still demanding further liberalisation of the Turkish
market, other authors see Turkey’s dependency on international capital f lows
as the major reason behind the crisis of 2001/2002 – something that could occur
again at any time (Aydın 2005: 107). After the Justice and Development Party
(AKP) won the elections in 2002, the country experienced a time of economic
recovery: strong economic growth coupled with a tremendous expansion of
trade, reduced inf lation and state debt (Altug & Filiztekin 2006: 22). Yearly
GDP growth rates of at least 5 per cent are projected for Turkey through to 2015
(Bagoglu, Hungermann, Kelkenberg, Klaiber & Schreiber 2005: 5).
The economic sectors contribute to this GDP growth to varying extents.
The largest proportion (about 60 per cent) comes from the service sector,
in particular from communication, transportation, f inance and tourism,
an industry that has markedly grown since the 1980s. At the same time,
this sector is still plagued by informal employment and informal economic
activity. Second place is held by industry, with more than 25 per cent of
GDP. Whereas private companies have become more productive and inter-
nationally competitive, this is not universally true for state-run f irms. The
automobile branch, in particular, has been able to attract foreign investors,
and automobile exports have caught up with the textile and clothing indus-
tries suffering from the strong competition of the Chinese. Recreational and
household electronics are also gaining more importance. Agriculture still
contributes about 10 per cent to GDP, but with a decreasing tendency. The