Migration scenarios: turkey, egypt and Morocco 255
building sector is represented by some 5 per cent of GDP and has experienced
very dynamic development over the past few years (CIA 2012).
Of growing importance in the tertiary sector are the areas of education,
transportation, communication, f inancial services and tourism (also one of
the largest sources of foreign currency) as well as health and social services
(Hütteroth 2002: 31; Schrick-Hildebrand 2006). At the same time, the service
sector still includes a large number of shoe-polishers, doormen and other
lower-level providers, so that it cannot yet be considered comparable to the
service sectors present in other countries of Europe (Hütteroth 2002: 26). The
agricultural sector still comprises around a third of the entire Turkish working
population, many of whom work on small-scale farms with low productivity.
Agriculture contributes about 10 per cent to GNP, with a declining trend and
an ever-growing level of de-agriculturisation (Altug & Filiztekin 2006: 51). The
resulting privatisation and concentration processes are putting great pressure
on small farmers, causing unemployment and often forcing them to migrate
to the city (Aydın 2005: 175-177). Among the most important agricultural
products grown in Turkey are grains, various types of fruit and vegetable,
tobacco and olives. Turkey is the most important producer of hazelnuts in
the world. In addition, Turkey has a large cotton industry that constitutes
the backbone of its internationally competitive textile and clothing industry.
The Turkish economy has prof ited tremendously from its business and trade
relationships with the EU countries, particularly since the customs union came
into effect in 1995. In 2005, Turkey did half of its external trade with members
of the EU (Bagoglu et al. 2005: 145). Among the 50 largest trading nations of the
world, Turkey lies somewhere in the middle, with imports still out-running
exports (Martin 2002: 171). This point is of particular importance in light of the
high vulnerability of the Turkish economy to turbulences in world economic
development. Apart from tourism – mainly responsible for the procurement
of foreign currency – and the building industry, exports constitute one of the
major growth segments of the Turkish economy, but imports are increasing at
about the same level because of the country’s dependence on the importation
of raw materials. In 2007, the value of all imports was US$63 billion higher than
that of exports. As a consequence of this trade imbalance, Turkey is dependent
on high inf lows of external capital, which will continue to make it vulnerable
to both internal and external economic shocks (Knupp 2008).
Public expenditure, debt accumulation and inf lation
Since the crisis of 2001, Turkey has produced a number of f iscal surprises,
most of which were achieved through tax increases. While, in 2001, the
budget def icit was still 30 per cent of GDP, it was reduced to only 1 per cent