258 Michael BoMMes, siMon FellMer and Friederike ZigMann
And yet the difference has narrowed over the last twenty years. Even if the
present situation is still not satisfactory, the average wage in Turkey did rise
nearly 80 per cent in the years 2003 to 2007 (Duygan & Güner 2006: 63-64,
71). However, other regional and economic disparities play a large role in
Turkey. Economic activities are concentrated in the north-west, in particular
in and around metropolitan Istanbul. The Marmara region produces some
40 per cent of total GNP. Other centres of economic power are Ankara and
Izmir, the Çukurova region, the cities of Kayseri, Gaziantep and Denizli and
the tourist regions near Antalya. On the other hand, broad sections of East
Anatolia lag far behind, as does the Black Sea region (Bagoglu et al. 2005:
10-11). In light of the limited agricultural and general economic-development
possibilities in the vast expanses of the eastern part of the country, internal
migration from Anatolia toward the West, in part a reaction to the continued
repressions of the Kurds, remains relevant (Hütteroth 2002: 23).
9.3.2 Three scenarios on the development of the migration potential
i n Tu r ke y
Below we sketch out three scenarios of the future development of the migra-
tion potential in Turkey which seem plausible against the background of
our remarks above.
Reform-oriented scenario: Admittance to the EU with strong economic
growth and (near) convergence of relevant factors (scenario 1)
In this scenario, Turkey continues its reform efforts in order to gain admittance
to the EU and, based on the increasing international investments in the Turk-
ish economy, can maintain its economic performance of previous years. The
repercussions caused by the international f inancial crisis remain moderate,
the labour-force participation rate and (formal) employment rise considerably,
and the differential with the rest of the EU is reduced. Turkey will invest a
higher proportion of the increasing tax revenues in educational efforts, so that
the overall educational level rises, producing long-lasting economic benef its.
GDP increases in the years up to 2020 by around 5 per cent annually
and GNI by 6.5 per cent; by 2030, Turkey’s GDP/GNI will have achieved
near-convergence with the rest of the EU. The labour-force participation
rate continues to grow and, by 2025, reaches a level of 52.43 per cent. The
rising level of educational expenditure and the overall economic upswing
translate into a higher absorption rate of qualif ied workers, so that it comes
closer to the EU rate of 59.62 per cent.