Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe Past Developments, Current Status, and Future Potentials (Amsterdam..

272 Michael BoMMes, siMon FellMer and Friederike ZigMann

Table 9.5

Egypt: scenario 2

2012

2015

2020

2025

2030

gdp

eu

31,959.42

3 2 , 9 2 7. 8 2

34,607.47

36,372.80

38 , 228 .18

gdp

egypt

6 , 417. 2 8

6,546.27

6 , 474. 8 4

6,062.97

7,16 4. 9 4

difference % (2012 = 100%)

100.00

103. 29

110 .14

118. 6 7 %

121. 62

gni

eu

32,352.00

33,233.39

34,756.05

36,348.48

38,013.87

gni

egypt

2,784.00

3,192. 21

3,864.96

4,0 41. 30

3,785.30

difference % (2012 = 100%)

100.00

101.60

104.47

109. 26

115. 76

lpr

eu

59.62

59.62

59.62

59.62

59.62

lpr

e gypt

49.50

47. 0 0

46.50

44.00

43.00

difference % (2012 = 100%)

100.00

124 .70

129. 6 4

15 4. 35

16 4. 23

emigration potential

• 
  

1,701, 861

1, 824,465

1,952,908

2,084,269

average % differences

100.00

109.86

114. 7 5

12 7. 4 3

133. 87

Final emigration potential

• 
  

1, 869,438

2,0 93, 6 41

2 , 4 8 8 , 511

2,79 0,191

reduced by network effect

• 
  

4 6 7, 3 6 0

523,410

62 2 ,128

6 9 7, 5 4 8

source: Fassmann; i

MF; un

; ilo

; authors’ calculations