272 Michael BoMMes, siMon FellMer and Friederike ZigMann
Table 9.5
Egypt: scenario 2
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
gdp
eu
31,959.42
3 2 , 9 2 7. 8 2
34,607.47
36,372.80
38 , 228 .18
gdp
egypt
6 , 417. 2 8
6,546.27
6 , 474. 8 4
6,062.97
7,16 4. 9 4
difference % (2012 = 100%)
100.00
- 29
110 .14
118. 6 7 %
- 62
gni
eu
32,352.00
33,233.39
34,756.05
36,348.48
38,013.87
gni
egypt
2,784.00
3,192. 21
3,864.96
4,0 41. 30
3,785.30
difference % (2012 = 100%)
100.00
101.60
104.47
- 26
115. 76
lpr
eu
59.62
59.62
59.62
59.62
59.62
lpr
e gypt
49.50
- 0 0
46.50
44.00
43.00
difference % (2012 = 100%)
100.00
124 .70
- 6 4
15 4. 35
16 4. 23
emigration potential
1,701, 861
1, 824,465
1,952,908
2,084,269
average % differences
100.00
109.86
114. 7 5
12 7. 4 3
- 87
Final emigration potential
1, 869,438
2,0 93, 6 41
2 , 4 8 8 , 511
2,79 0,191
reduced by network effect
4 6 7, 3 6 0
523,410
62 2 ,128
6 9 7, 5 4 8
source: Fassmann; i
MF; un
; ilo
; authors’ calculations