AUGUST 13, 2018 INDIA TODAY 39ping a possible meltdown of the Pakistan
economy and is likely to focus on improv-
ing ties with China and the US—countries
he is dependent on to bail him out of the
financial mess he has inherited.
Menon too believes there will be no
fundamental change in relations because
the Pakistan army doesn’t want it. Army
chief Qamar Javed Bajwa’s occasional
statements that he would like relations
with India to improve are seen as tacti-
cal moves to permit the army to focus on
dealing with the situation in Afghanistan
and avoid an escalation of hostilities with
India. As Menon says, “This is a perfect
state of affairs for the Pakistan army.” Af-
ter the elections, the generals now have a
weak coalition government that is to their
liking. They can keep a controlled level
of hostility with India to leverage their
hold over home affairs, keep their defence
budgets intact and retain their influence
on both security and foreign policy issues.
They will allow Khan to do a little bit of
dance over having a dialogue on Kashmir
to keep India occupied and the generals
will focus their energies on ensuring they
retain their influence over Afghanistan.
US President Donald Trump is keen to
end America’s involvement in the Af-
ghanistan conundrum and his officials
have warned Pakistan that the US will not
bail it out with a loan from the IMF unless
Khan plays ball with its plans for Kabul.
So can Modi do business with Khan?
Modi’s team is watching to see the kind
of foreign policy advisors Khan appoints
to gauge his sincerity and effectiveness.
They are clear that there can be no for-
ward movement in ties until Pakistan
agrees to stop allowing its territory to
be used by terrorist groups to perpetrate
attacks on India and also ensures that
the ceasefire agreement is enforced on
the LoC. India is willing to talk on all
outstanding issues, including Kashmir,
if Khan is able to address these key is-
sues. As a sign of goodwill, India also ex-
pects some forward movement in trade,
though officials are clear this is not to
be used as a bargaining point. India has
been waiting for Pakistan to grant it
Most Favoured Nation status in trade
since 2012 and permission to use Paki-
stan as a transit route for trading goods
between India and Afghanistan has also
been perpetually delayed. Some experts
believe even a small demonstration, such
as improving the logistics facilities for
smoother transfer of goods between In-
dia and Pakistan at the Wagah border,
would signal Khan’s sincerity in improv-
ing relations with India.T
he immediate question is
whether Modi should go to
Pakistan if Khan invites him
for his swearing-in ceremony.
The consensus among experts is that he
should accept such an invitation. It
would again showcase to the world that
Modi is sincere in his efforts to have
peaceful relations with Pakistan and
that it is Islamabad that has been the
stumbling block. It would also enable
Modi to travel to Pakistan and meet
Khan without any agenda or expecta-
tions from the Indian public about out-
comes. A face-to-face meeting will also
help Modi assess Khan as a leader and
whether he will be able to walk his talk
and deliver on key issues of common in-
terest. Raghavan believes there is a
growing constituency in the two coun-
tries that would like to break the logjam
in bilateral relations. The world has seen
dramatic changes in recent times—
whether between the two Koreas, the US
approach to international trade and
NATO and the ascent of Xi Jinping in
China. There is no reason why the sub-
continent should be an exception to this
prolonged season of change. After all,
Khan came to power on the slogan of
Naya Pakistan. nKhan should
know there
is goodwill for
him in Indian
hearts. He
should not
fritter it away