36 Asia TheEconomistMay21st 2022
versity in Mandalay, Myanmar’s secondci
ty, branded seven students who attended
their graduation ceremony as “traitors”.
Those who do not abide by the instruc
tions of the resistance may be at riskofre
prisals. People’s Defence Forces (pdfs),
guerrilla outfits that are loyal to theshad
ow government though not under itscom
mand, mostly target government offices
and army checkpoints. But they havealso
hit civilian structures (which violatesthe
nug’s code of conduct). When the junta
tried to reopen schools last June, guerrillas
planted bombs at scores of them, hopingto
kill the soldiers stationed there. Anyinter
action with the regime is risky, no matter
how innocent the reason. “If a pdfseesyou
talking to a township administrator[alo
cal government official], even if the workis
to help communities, they could reactina
very negative way,” says the local bossofan
international agency.
Some expectations held by theresis
tance and its supporters are unrealistic.
Businesses cannot refuse to pay tax.“It’s
not about political legitimation, it’sabout
rule of law,” says an analyst based inMyan
mar. The head of the international agency
says that it stopped working with thegov
ernment after the coup, but does informit
of its activities. Otherwise, he says, it
might get thrown out of the country.Still,
two big international donors have stopped
funding his agency, because sponsoring
development projects in Myanmar hasbe
come politically unpalatable.
Zeya Thu (not his real name andsome
details have been changed) works ata mi
crofinance company which lends topoor
households. Friends who have leftMyan
mar since the coup, he says, accuse himof
“being a supporter of the military”, because
his company regularly meets officialsat
the central bank. “I’m helping poor people
here,” he says, “but they say helpingthe
poor is helping the military.”
The resistance believes that working
class people “will voluntarily embraceto
tal deprivation”, says Mr Min Zin. Yetthis,
too, is an impossible ask. The numberof
strikers has declined by more than half,be
cause many can no longer afford tostay
away from work. (Some others wereforced
to return by the junta.) The zealousness
with which activists, who are oftenmid
dleclass, attack those who give in mayend
up sapping enthusiasm for their cause.
Ms Moe Moe remains an ardent suppor
ter of the nug, yet she is now more fright
ened of her fellow resisters than of thear
my. That is extraordinary, given that thear
my routinely slaughters civilians, razes
villages, tortures prisoners and rapes
women. “I have managed to hide fromthe
military all this time,” she explains.“Butit
is really hard to evade the spotlightofthe
people, of the community around me.”n
Myanmar’scivilwar(2)
PasstheKool-Aid
T
o spendtimeonBurmesesocialmedia
oronlinenewssitesistothinktheend
is near for Myanmar’s military junta,
whichseizedpowerina couplastFebruary.
Resistance groups,it would appear, are
slaughteringthearmy’smenandoccupy
ingthecountryside.Theregimeisseem
inglystrugglingtoconductbasicadminis
trative tasksorsecureanyinternational
recognition. The underground National
UnityGovernment(nug), whichleadsthe
resistance,saidlastmonththatantijunta
forcescontrolhalfthecountry’sterritory.
Defectorstalkofa crisisofmoraleinthe
armedforces.
Butpeerpastthevirtualfog,anda far
bleakerpictureemerges.Althoughitcan
barelykeepthelightsoninYangon,the
commercial capital, the junta controls
Myanmar’scitiesandmostofitsnaturalre
sources,includingminescontainingthe
world’sfinestjade.Chinarecentlyhosted
its foreign minister. Armed antiregime
groupsarefragmented,withuptoa dozen
ina singledistrict.Apaucityofweapons
hasleftthemunabletogobeyondguerrilla
ambushesandassassinations.
Bajar,thenomdeguerreofa memberof
anantiregimemilitiainthearidcentral
regionofSagaing,sayshisgroupcanarm
only20%ofits2,000menusingpublicdo
nations.Hesaysgroupslikehiscommand
halfofhistownship’sruralhinterland,but
thisholdsonlysolongasthejunta’ssol
diersstayintheirurbanbases.“Iftheyad
vance,wehavetoretreatandcomeback
whentheyleave,”hesays.
Theseadvanceshavebeenregularand
devastating.InSagaingalone,juntaforces
haveburntdownmorethan7,500houses,
accordingtoDataforMyanmar,a monitor
inggroup.Morethan230,000peopleinthe
regionhavebeendisplaced,reckonsthe
un. Aresidentoftheareasays that,al
thougharesistancegroupnowrunsher
village,it“can’tprotectthevillagersbe
causeit hassofewweapons”.
Despitethisbrutaltoll,Myanmar’sre
belsmaintainanupbeatmessagethatBur
mese media are quick to amplify,with
headlinessuchas“Myanmarcoupleader
reveals his desperation”. Many ofthese
outletsreproducetheclaimsofresistance
groups.Theirnarrativeofimminentvicto
ryisembracedonsocialmedia.
“We’renotgettingthefullstoryfrom
thelocalmedia,whooftenaren’treporting
thedefeats,”saysa Burmesejournalistwho
goesbyCapeDiamond,a pseudonym.Me
diaoutletsareunabletosendreportersto
findoutfactsontheground.Thisispartly
becausejournalistsriskarrest,orworse,if
theytrytoworkopenly.“Instead,theyrely
oncitizenjournalistsandlocalswhoare
alsorevolutionaries,”hesays.Evenprofes
sionaljournalistsfindithardtobeobjec
tiveinthefaceofthejunta’sviolenceand
oppression.They“wanttousetheirpenfor
therevolution”,saysMrDiamond.
These outletsarealsocounteringthe
liesandfantasiesoftheregime.General
MinAungHlaing,thecountry’sdefacto
leader,heraldeda“yearofpeace”during
Thingyan,Myanmar’straditionalnewyear
festival, last month. He then launched
peacetalkswithseverallongestablished
ethnicrebelgroupsbasedalongtheThai
andChineseborders,noneofwhichisac
tuallyfightingtheregimeatthemoment.
Juntacontrolledstatemedia depicta
countryofbustlingmarkets,joyful Bud
dhist festivals and farmers producing
bumpercrops,disturbedonlybya fewiso
lated “terrorist” attacks. In the second
weekofMay,whenthearmedforcesspent
eachdaytorchingvillagesandmurdering
civilians,GlobalNewLightofMyanmar, a
staterundaily,ranfrontpageson“virgin
islands”ripefortourism,theannualmi
grationofbirdsandthecultivationofele
phantyams—“agiftofnature”.
ThedifferenceisthatfewBurmeseac
ceptthejunta’sotherworldly fakenews,
whilemanyareeagertobelievethatthere
sistanceisclosetovictory.Yetselfdecep
tionisa poormilitarystrategy.“Ifyouwant
towin,”saysMrDiamond,“you’vegotto
keepyoureyesopen.”n
C HIANGMAI
Theresistancemovementisatrisk
ofbelievingitsownpropaganda
Bayof
Bengal
Irrawaddy
Chin
Kachin
Kayah
Kayin
Magway
Mandalay
Sittwe
Mon
Naypyidaw
Rakhine
Sagaing
Shan
Yangon
Bago
INDIA
BANGLADESH
CHINA
THAILAND
MYANMAR
LAOS
Chiang
Mai
Ta
nin
th
ary
i
Pre-coupmilitiapresence
Selectedgroups
ArakanArmy
KarenNational
LiberationArmy
KachinIndependenceArmy
Other
Sources:InternationalCrisis
Group;TheAsiaFoundation
200 km