A_F_2015_03_04_

Jim’s Analysis

This is indeed very sad. Many of us

knew and respected Val, the pilot. I

know she would have wanted us to

learn from her experience, so that

the lives of others may be saved. So

any criticisms that may be offered

by myself or others are with the best

intent in the world.

Let’s go back to the question that

I always ask after an accident. Could

you see it coming? In other words

if you were in the back seat of the

aircraft, at what stage would you be

saying to yourself “This is starting

to look unsafe. Given a free choice I

would rather not be here”?

Not an easy question in this case,

because we don’t have the advantage

that the pilot had, of being able to

look out of the window and make an

assessment of the weather. All we can

do is try to read between the lines of

this report and try to visualise what

was happening.

First, February is high-season for

afternoon thunderstorms around the

Johannesburg/Pretoria area. They

are pretty much guaranteed. This

being so I would not be happy to

venture into cloud in an aeroplane,

which, although well-equipped, I

would regard as suitable for pansy

instrument flying – climbing or

descending through a couple of

thousand of feet of stratus.

For “proper” IF, I believe you

need two engines, de-icing, a good

auto-pilot, a good current IF co-

pilot, weather radar and stormscope.

In this case I believe the last two

would have prevented the pilot from

entering an active thunderstorm cell.

So when would I have started

squirming in the back seat? When

I saw us heading towards an area of

CBs, with a weather radar that was

known to be intermittent.

I have to say that I don’t believe the

findings of the investigators when

they say she lost control of the aircraft,

although this could have happened

following a lightning strike. My opinion

is the aircraft broke up in flight.

Because of the pilot’s vast

experience, and seemingly well

equipped aircraft, I take this accident

very seriously, and have elicited

comments from two aviation forums

which might throw additional light

on the accident.

Someone should tell the CAA that

they absolutely must not use the

term “inadvertently”. As apparently

that is not possible, as has been

pointed out so many times on

AV C O M.

I was standing outside here at Vans...

We were watching this dramatic

thunderstorm passing to the south.

It was actually quite magnificent.

A light-blue Cessna 210 passed

overhead in a south-westerly

direction – directly into the path

of the huge storm. I remarked:

“I’m glad I’m here on the ground

and not up there!”

Thunderstorms Kill

Date of Accident: 7 February 2002

Time of Accident: 1615Z

Aircraft Registration: ZS-MXR

Type of Aircraft: Cessna 210

Pilot-in-command

Licence type: ATPL

Licence Valid: Ye s

Age: 64

Total Flying Hours: 22,680

Hours on Type: 179 2

Last point of departure:

Petersburg Aerodrome

Next point of intended landing:

Vereeninging aerodrome

Location of the accident site:

9.4 nm North of Vereeniging

Meteorological Information:

Thunderstorms with strong

winds and heavy rain.

Number of people on board: 1+2

No. of people injured: None

No. of people killed: 1+2

SYNOPSIS

On 7 February 2002 at 0526Z the

aircraft departed from Lanseria

Airport for a flight to Vereenging

in order to uplift two passengers

(one of whom was a prospective

buyer). After collecting the

two passengers, the aircraft

departed for Pietersburg and

landed there at 1042Z.

The aircraft again departed

from Pietersburg at 1438Z

approximately four hours

later for the return flight to

Vereeniging. Approximately

23 minutes after take-off while

approximately 26 nm outbound,

the pilot requested to return to

Pietersburg due to poor weather,

which prevented continuing on a

VFR flight to Vereeniging. While

routing back to Pietersburg

and while in discussion with

Pietersburg ATC and Lowveld

Information, the pilot filed an IFR

flight plan for the return flight to

Vereeniging with Lanseria as the

alternate aerodrome. The aircraft

was given a squawk code of 7417

and was cleared for FL140.

At 1553Z the aircraft was

approximately 5 nm from the

Johannesburg TMA at FL120 and

was given descent clearance for

FL100. The pilot continued with

her descent but reported strong

up-draughts.

The aircraft continued

towards Vereeniging and while

approximately 10 nm North

of Vereeniging aerodrome,

the pilot requested to divert

to Lanseria due to being in a

tremendous storm. The aircraft

turned out to the right and the

last radar return showed the

aircraft heading in a Westerly

direction at FL083 at a ground

speed of 160 knots.

The wreckage of the aircraft

was later found in the same area

where radar contact was lost.

The aircraft was destroyed

and all three occupants on board

were fatally injured

PROBABLE CAUSE

The instrument rated Airline

Transport pilot inadvertently

entered a severe storm and in

an attempt to turn out of the

storm and divert to Lanseria,

lost control of the aircraft and

collided with the ground.

CAA ACCIDENT REPORT SUMMARY

JIM DAVIS

lear n?

What can we

Jim Davis has 15,000 hours of immensely varied

flying experience, including 10,000 hours civil and

military flying instruction. He is an established

author, his current projects being an instructors’

manual and a collection of Air Accident analyses,

called ‘Choose not to Crash’.

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AUSTRALIAN FLYING March – April 2015