The Economist - USA (2022-06-11)

The Economist June 11th 2022 Europe 53

FightinginDonbas

Grindingon

T

hewarinUkraine,nowinitsfourth

month,defiessimplenotionsofwin­

ning and losing. Russian forces are

thoughttobeincontrolofmostofSevero­

donetsk,attheeasternedgeofa Ukrainian

salientintheDonbasregion.Ukrainianre­

sistanceisnowconfinedtoanindustrial

zoneinthewesternmostedgeofthetown.

Yetterritorialcontrolisebbingandflow­

ing.Russia’snetgainsineasternUkraine

betweenthemiddleofAprilandtheendof

Mayadduptojustover 450 squarekilo­

metres(abouta thirdofthesizeofGreater

London)accordingtoRochanConsulting,

a firmthattracksthewar;hardlya spectac­

ularbounty.NeitherRussia norUkraine

looks likely to make a decisive break­

through.Instead,eachhopestogrindthe

otherdownina warofattrition.

Russia’s losseshavebeensevere.The

invasionforcethatitinitiallycommitted

tothewarhadbeenreducedtoabout58%

ofitspre­warstrengthbythemiddleof

May, accordingto aWesternofficial.By

June1stthathadfallenbyanotherfewper­

centagepoints.Russiahaslostatleast 761

tanks,overa thirdofthemsincethebegin­

ningoftheDonbasoffensiveonApril18th.

Muchlessisknownaboutthestateof

Ukraine’sforces.Whatisclear,though,is

thattheyhavealsotakenamauling.On

May 31st President Volodymyr Zelensky

saidthat 60 to 100 ofhissoldiersweredy­

TheconflictinUkraineissettling

intoa warofattrition

Mariupol

Kherson

Kharkiv

Severo-

donetsk

Melitopol

Enerhodar

Izyum

Lysychansk

Black

Sea

Seaof

Azov

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

Crimea

Ukrainian territory annexed

by Russia in 2014

Luhansk

Donetsk

Area controlled by

Russian-backed

separatists before

Feb 24th

Do

nbas

150 km

ClaimedasRussian-controlled

AssessedRussianadvances*

AssessedasRussian-controlled

ClaimedUkrainiancounter-attacks

Reported Ukrainian partisan warfare

June 8th 222 *Russia operated in

or attacked, but

does not control

Sources: Institute for

the Study of War;

AEI’s Critical

Threats Project

Ukraine

Hide and seek

T

herussianstookthestrategicrailhub
ofMelitopolonthethirddayofthewar,
theirrouteapparentlygreased byUkrai­
nianturncoats.Controllingthecity,a cru­
cialpartofVladimirPutin’slandbridgeto
Crimea,hasprovedsomewhattrickier.Ev­
eryfewdaysbringsa surprisingreport:an
armouredtraindestroyedandagrenade
attackona commandpost(May18th);rail­
waytracksandaradarstationblownup
(May 22nd);a pro­Ukrainian rally (May
29th);anda collaborator’shousehitbyan
explosion  (May  30th).  Ukraine  claims  its
partisans  have  killed  more  than  100  Rus­
sian soldiers behind enemy lines in Meli­
topol. “Our people are doing everything to
make sure the land burns under the feet of
the occupiers,” says the town’s mayor, Ivan
Fedorov, now safe in Ukrainian­controlled
territory. 
Melitopol  is  the  unofficial  capital  of
Ukraine’s  resistance.  But  it  is  far  from  the
only  place  that  has  seen  such  operations.
In  neighbouring  Kherson,  a  Russian­con­
trolled  airbase  has  been  blown  up  nearly
two  dozen  times.  In  Enerhodar,  Andrii
Shevchyk, the collaborationist mayor, was
the target of an unsuccessful assassination
attempt.  In  Izyum,  Russian  soldiers  were
given poisoned pies by a seemingly friend­
ly  old  lady,  according  to  a  telephone  con­
versation  between  a  Russian  soldier  and
his  girlfriend  that  was  intercepted  by  Uk­
rainian intelligence; eight of them report­
edly ended up dead. When Russians aban­
don  tanks  or  petrol  trucks,  Ukrainian
farmers tow them away. Reports of explo­
sions at arms dumps trickle in from the oc­
cupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. 
Fires  and  explosions  at  military  facili­
ties inside Russia itself also seem to be be­
coming more common. In many cases, the
evidence points to poor fire safety. But Uk­
rainian  special  forces  do  appear  to  be  tar­
geting  supply  chains  in  Russia’s  border
provinces. On at least one occasion a heli­
copter has struck an oil­storage facility in
the Russian city of Bryansk. Officials in Ky­
iv refuse to comment. Speaking off the re­
cord,  a  tight­lipped  intelligence  officer
says it would be better to speak to a priest:
“This  is  God’s  work.  God  is  punishing  the
Russian  Federation.  Maybe  not  directly.
Maybe not with his own hands. Maybe he
has to use helicopters.”
Ukraine’s  underground  resistance  in
occupied  territories  is  co­ordinated  by  a
military unit called the Special Operations

Forces(sso).Thedivisionwas  formed  in

2015  after  attempts  at  partisan  activity

failed  disastrously  following  Russia’s  pre­

vious  invasion  of  the  Donbas  region  in

2014.  A  former  operative  in  the  unit,  who
      asked to remain anonymous, says the work
      is  split  into  three  parts:  military  action,
      support operations and psychological war­
      fare. “Say the task is to stop the enemy from
      moving more reserves to Melitopol,” he ex­
      plains. “The ssoassigns special forces the
      task  of  blowing  up  a  bridge,  it  asks  parti­
      sans to damage the railway, and it gets psy­
      ops  [psychological  operations]  to  print
      leaflets to say we’re on the watch. So in the
      end, only half the troops dare to come.” 
      “This  work  isn’t  always  good  for  one’s
      health,” says the ssosource. “The risks are
      real  and  it  isn’t  a  walk  in  the  park.”  As  in
      2014,  Russia’s  security  services  appear  to
      have  got  their  hands  on  secret  military
      databases  that  help  them  to  track  down
      veterans.  In  Kherson,  Russian  officers  are
      visiting  the  homes  of  Ukrainians  who
      served  in  the  army.  Those  who  haven’t
      managed to switch addresses are detained,
      tortured or worse. Russia also appears to be
      stepping  up  efforts  to  deter  Ukrainians
      from joining the resistance, increasing ar­
      rests and demonstrative punishments. But
      intercepts  released  by  Ukrainian  security
      services suggest some Russian soldiers are
      fearful. “Every fucking night we’re fighting
      with  diversionary  groups  who  come  into
      the village,” a soldier tells a friend in a call.
      “Some  of  us  have  had  enough.  We’re  get­
      ting the fuck out of here.” 
      The  true  strength  of  Ukraine’s  resis­
      tance will be tested only in a new phase of
      the  war,  a  proposed  counterattack  in  the
      south. The tight­lipped intelligence officer
      predicts Ukraine’s underground army will
      prove to be a big asset.  He suggests Vladi­
      mir Putin’s troops will be forced to beat an
      ugly  retreat.  “The  Russians  will  be  ableto
      write  another  ‘War  and  Peace’,”  hesays.
      “I’ve always been very fond of Tolstoy.” n

KYIV
Ukraine’s partisans are hitting Russian
soldiers behind their own lines

The resistance is out there