The Economist - USA (2022-06-11)

54 Europe The EconomistJune11th 2022

ing each day, with 500 more being wound­

ed—loss rates comparable to some battles

of the second world war. Western officials

say those figures are broadly accurate. One

says that Russian and Ukrainian loss rates

are now about the same. 

If the war is settling into a contest of at­

trition, which side is more likely to prevail?

A great deal depends on which country can

produce  a  steadier  flow  of  manpower,

equipment and ammunition. Vladimir Pu­

tin, Russia’s president, has so far refused to

conduct  a  nationwide  mobilisation  of  re­

servists  and  conscripts,  but  there  is  evi­

dence  that  the  country’s  defence  ministry

is trying to lure men with military experi­

ence back into action with the promise of

pay packets as hefty as $5,000 per month—

six  to  eight  times  thesalaryofanaverage

lieutenant. Ukraine’sproblemisdifferent.

It  has  an  ample  sourceofmotivatedre­

cruits,  but  not  enough people to train

them. Konrad Muzyka,thefounderofRo­

chan  Consulting,  saysthatthenumberof

would­be  recruits  forthearmedforcesis

so high that there is awaitinglistofovera

month to be inducted.

On the face of it, equipmentshouldbe

less  of  a  problem.  America,Australiaand

European countries haveallsentmorear­

tillery, ammunition andotherarmstoUk­

raine  over  the  past  month.America,Brit­

ain and Germany havealsopromisedrock­

et­launchers  that  canstrikearoundthree

times farther than thoseartillerysystems.

These  probably  will not come quickly

enough to halt Russia’sconquestofSevero­

donetsk  and  possiblynearbytowns,such

as  Lysychansk,  whichMrZelenskyvisited

in person on June 5th.ThePentagonsaysit

will  take  weeks  to  trainUkrainianforces

on the himarsrocket­launcher.Butifthe

war drags on for monthsorevenyears,as

American  and  Europeanofficialsnowex­

pect, these foreign weaponswillplaya vi­

tal role. 

The Biden administrationbelievesthat

the $40bn package ofassistancesignedby

the president on May 21stwillallowa “high

tempo”  of  military  aidtocontinueuntil

nearly the end of the year.Inpractice,both

sides  will  need  to  pausefighting,torest

and rebuild their batteredarmieslongbe­

fore  that.  Yet  the  fightingisthenlikelyto

resume.  Mr  Putin  hasacynical viewof

Western  staying  power.Hebelievesthat

European  and  transatlanticdivisionswill

widen  as  the  war  dragson.Higherenergy

prices,  inflation  andwidereconomicdis­

ruption  might  encouragethosewhowant

an  early  ceasefire.  “Wecannotmakethat

mistake  again,”  arguedKajaKallas,Esto­

nia’s  prime  minister,onJune6th,citing

Russia’s  land  grab  inGeorgiain 2008 as

well  as  the  Minsk  deals negotiated by

France and Germany afterRussia’sfirstin­

vasion  of  Ukraine  in2014.“Wehavetobe

prepared for a long war.”n

NorwayandRussia

High noon in

the High North

“W

eare backtoacold­warmode,”

says  Jens­Arne  Hoilund,  Norway’s

Border Commissioner. Mr Hoilund’s job is

to resolve any problems that arise along his

country’s  short  but  remote  border  with

Russia.  That  used  to  mean  such  things  as

retrieving errant reindeer that ambled into

Russian territory on the far side of the icy

Pasvik  River  in  search  of  fresher  lichen.

Since  March,  however,  contact  with  the

other side has been minimal. “Getting back

to  the  relationship  that  we  had  will  take

years,” he says. “If it is even possible.” 

The  Arctic  had  been  a  rare  area  of  suc­

cessful  co­operation  between  Russia  and

the  West,  but  now  the  fragile  system  that

has made it stable and predictable is under

threat. “The cold winds in the north did not

originate  there,”  quips  Norway’s  prime

minister, Jonas Gahr Store, speaking to The

Economistfrom his office almost 2,000km

to the south in Oslo. “No issue, no region,

no matter of co­operation is unaffected by

Ukraine,” he adds, “and what the full impli­

cations will be for the Arctic, we are yet to

know the full extent.” 

Virtually  all  contact  with  Russia  in  the

Arctic has now stopped. Of the eight Arctic

states, five are members of nato, and two,

Finland and Sweden, have now applied to

join. Russia is the eighth. The Arctic Coun­

cil, the main forum for dialogue among the

eight,  has  been  paused  since  March.  The

Euro­Arctic Barents Council and the Arctic

Coast  Guard  Forum,  two  smaller  group­

ings, have followed suit. Bilateral ties have

not  been  spared,  and  only  border  cross­

ings,  search­and­rescue  and  fisheries  are

working  as  usual between Norway and

Russia.  “Invasionshaveramificationsfar

beyond the battlefield,”saysMrStore.

In Kirkenes, thelastfishingtownbefore

Russia,  nerves  aretwitchy.Undera bright

Arctic  sun,  a  mothercomplainsaboutthe

government  in  Oslo asshewatches her

son’s football teamgetbattered.“Theynev­

er think about us uphere,”shefumes.The

local  economy  is heavily dependent on

Russia; indeed manyofitsstreetsignsare

bilingual. Everythingfromtheshipyardto

a cross­border ice­hockeyleaguehasbeen

hit  by  the  fallout  fromthewar.“Ifweare

not careful, we willruinthingsforgenera­

tions to come,” shesays.“Theydonothave

this closeness downthere.”

For the moment,theotherArcticstates

are  focusing  on  findinga waytoresume

co­operation  amongthemselves,without

Russia. The Arcticiswarmingtwiceasfast

as the global averageandtheNordiccoun­

tries,  at  least,  considercollaboration on

scientific researchurgent.

The war in Ukraineandthebreakdown

in  Arctic  dialoguecould alsoexacerbate

tensions caused byRussia’sgrowingmili­

tary presence in theregion.It hasreactivat­

ed some 50 Sovietoutpostsinrecentyears,

and  invested  in  itsNorthernFleetandin

missiles,  both  nuclearandconventional,

based  on  the  Kola Peninsula, a stone’s

throw  from  the  Norwegian border. The

mauling suffered byRussia’sconventional

forces in Ukraine mayincreasetheimpor­

tance to Russia’s highcommandofitsmis­

siles  in  the  Arctic.Whatthismeansfor

Russian defence planningispreoccupying

Scandinavian militarystrategists.

Norway is alsopouringmoneyintothe

High  North.  It  is  buildingnewboatsand

barracks and has dispatchedf­35jetsinto

Arctic skies and FridtjofNansen­classfrig­

ates into the ArcticOcean.Kirkenesislike­

ly to see more boredconscriptswondering

why everything closesat3pm,evenunder

the  midnight  sun.“Wefollowwhathap­

pens  in  the  air, on thesurface, onthe

ground and evenunderthesurface,”warns

Mr Store. Norwaywillbe“flyingmoreand

observing more”.n

K IRKENES

The war in Ukraine is affecting

the Arctic

Hammerfest

Kirkenes

NORWAY

RUSSIA

FINLAND

Murmansk

Archangel

Kemi

ArcticCircle

Pasvik

Kola

Peninsula

Barents

Sea

200 km

Oslo