The Economist - USA (2022-06-11)

TheEconomistJune11th 2022 Britain 59

liamentariansandthepopulists.”
Ranged against Mr Johnson are the
Roundheads.Theirsisanorthodoxunder­
standing of Britain’s constitution—that
mps areelectedbytheirconstituents;and
whoeverenjoystheconfidenceofa major­
ityofthemisappointedbythequeenas
primeminister,whointurnmayappoint
ministers.Iftheprimeministerlosestheir
confidence,theyfall.A primeminister’s
authoritybeginsandendsinParliament.
MrJohnson’snoisiestdefenders,mean­
while,areCavaliers.Theirsisa garbledidea
oftheBritishconstitution,whichsaysMr
Johnson draws his legitimacy directly
fromthepeople.Underthis reading,he
wasnotelectedmerelyby25,000votersin
hisconstituency ofUxbridge andSouth
Ruislip,orbyhiscolleaguesontheTory
benches,butbyallthosewhovotedCon­
servativeinthegeneralelectionof2019.
Onthisview,withdrawingconfidence
isnotanmp’srightbuta usurpingofthe
popularwill.“Ifinditutterlybizarrethata
smallnumberofmps thinkthattheycan
overrulethatvoteof 14 millionpeople,”
seethedNadineDorries,theculturesecre­
taryandoneofMrJohnson’sclosestallies.
Somesenseaspecialbondbetweenthe
prime minister and his people: Danny
Kruger, another supporter, declared he
“personallyrepresents”a “moral”mission
toimproveBritain.ThatMrJohnsonwas
neverthat popular(see chart2), andis
booedwhenheappearsinpublic,isanin­
convenientdetail;manyloyalistsinsisthe
stillhasthemagictouchwithvoters.
Thereisa touchofCharlesI aboutMr
Johnson.Asa boyhedeclaredhewantedto
be“worldking”;earlierinhiscareer,a col­
leagueremarkedthathe“thinkshehasa
divinerighttorulethecountry”.Partygate
exposed how he ran his administration
likea royalcourt,withfriendsandcourt­

iersslippinginandoutofoffices.It alsore­

vealeda Cavalierlicentiousness;abstemi­

ouspuritansdidnotstickaround.

Atrendtowardsregalprimeministers

has been under way since Margaret

Thatcher:theyconsulttheircabinetless,

andaremoreprominentinelectioncam­

paigns,thanearlierleaders.ButMrJohn­

son’s premiership is characterised by a

specialdisdainforParliament.TheBrexit

referendumpitteda newformofpopular

sovereignty, the “will of the people”,

againstthatofmps.In2019,whenParlia­

mentthreatenedtostymiehisBrexitplans,

heproroguedit,a movetheSupremeCourt

foundunlawful.InofficehehasaskedPar­

liamenttograntministersextensivepow­

erstorewritelegislationatwill.

Allthis hasfuelled discontent. Jesse

Norman,a leadingRoundhead,thisweek

accusedMrJohnsonofattemptingtoim­

porta presidentialsystem“thatisentirely

foreigntoourconstitution andlaw.But

youarenota president,andyouhaveno

mandateotherthanasanmp, andfromthe

confidenceofyourcolleagues.”

MrJohnson’snextbattleisaninvestiga­

tionbyParliament’sPrivilegesCommittee

intowhetherhewilfullymisledtheHouse

ofCommonsabouttheparties;ifitfinds

thathedid,theCommonswillbeaskedto

ratifyitsfindingsandcansuspendhimas

punishment. ForCavaliersitwouldbea

slipofthetongueforwhichthepubliccare

little.ForRoundheadsitwouldbea crime:

if ministerscanfreelylietoParliament,the

processofscrutinyonwhichparliamenta­

rygovernmentrestswouldcollapse.

JohnBaron,amongthefirsttocallfor

MrJohnsontogo,isanunlikelyrebel:a

hardlineBrexiteerrepresentingtheblue­

collarseatofBasildonandBillericay.But

heisa parliamentariantohisbones,who

in 2013 leda rebelliontogivemps oversight

overtheprimeminister’swarpowers.For

MrBaron,theevasionsofMrJohnsonhave

putthecredibilityofParliamentinjeopar­

dy.Itisanmp’sduty“toensurethatthe

soulofourconstitutionistreatedwithrev­

erence”,heremarked.

Itisforthisreasonthattheministerial

code,arulebookforgovernment,makes

lyingtoParliamenta resigningoffence.Yet

itisMrJohnsonwhopolicesthecode,and

hehasmadeitcleartowhomheanswers.

Lastmonthherevisedthecodetostatethat

heisaccountableto Parliamentbutalso

“viatheballotbox,totheBritishpeople”.

OnethingtheBritishpeoplecannotdo

isgovernforhim.MrJohnsonhaslostcon­

troloftheParliamenthedisdains;thein­

surrectionswampshisworkingmajority.

Heisevenmorelikelytoshyawayfrom

confrontationasa result.Onthedayofthe

confidence vote the government an­

nounceditwasdroppinga chunkofa new

high­speedrailwaynetworkthatirritated

localmps.MrJohnson’sill­conceivedplan

torewritetheBrexitdealonNorthernIre­

landmaybestymied,too.(“Economically

verydamaging,politicallyfoolhardy and

almostcertainlyillegal,”wasMrNorman’s

pithyverdict.)Yetsincehisopponentsare

sofragmented,appeasingonefactionwill

onlyaggravateanother.

An indiscreet contest to succeed Mr

Johnsonisunderway.Thefieldofcandi­

dateswillbewide.ItwillincludeBenWal­

lace,thedefencesecretary;LizTruss,the

foreignsecretary;JeremyHunt,aformer

healthsecretary;andNadhimZahawi,the

educationsecretary.Nonewillfinditeasy

tocommandtheparty’srivalfactions.All,

however,willrallytotheRoundheadban­

ner,promisingtoreassertministerialstan­

dardsandrestorepowertomps.

Therebelsaredeterminedtoorganise

another confidence vote—in theory

bannedbytherulesforanotheryear,yet

feasibleifthesearesimplychangedbythe

1922 Committee ofbackbench mps. The

party’sconferenceinOctoberwillbea mo­

mentofdanger.ButMrJohnsoncanalso

seektorenewhisownlegitimacy.InMarch

hisgovernmentrepealed theFixed­term

ParliamentsAct,restoringthepowerofthe

primeministertocallelectionsbeforethe

scheduledendofhisterm.IfMrJohnson

wantstotestthepopularwillinwhichhis

supportersplacesomuchfaith,hecan.n

Unpopularity contest

Britain, net satisfaction with prime minister

Percentage points

Source: Ipsos

2

60

40

20

1979 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 2220

Thatcher Major Blair Brown Cameron May Johnson

Odd one out

Britain, cabinet ministers*, net satisfaction

among Conservative Party members

Percentage points, May 2022

Source:ConservativeHome

1

*Including those attending

7550250-25 100

Boris Johnson

Rishi Sunak

Priti Patel

Liz Truss

Ben Wallace

Nadine

Dorries

Michael

Gove

Nadhim

Zahawi