Yascha Mounk
142 μ¢¤³£ ¬μμ¬
democratic opponents. But as the case o Erdogan demonstrates, they
will eventually face serious challenges o their own.AN AUTOCRATIC FUTURE?
It is tempting to cast the stakes in the struggle between authoritarian
populists and democratic institutions in existential terms. I populists
manage to gain eective control over key institutions, such as the ju-
diciary and the electoral commission, then the bell has tolled for de-
mocracy. But this conclusion is premature. After all, a rich literature
suggests that all kinds o dictatorships have, historically, been remark-
ably vulnerable to democratic challenges.
Between the end o World War II and the collapse o the Soviet
Union, for instance, dictatorships had a two percent chance o collapsing
in any given year. During the 1990s, the odds increased to ¿ve percent,
according to research by the political scientists Adam Przeworski and
Fernando Limongi. Clearly, the concentration o power that charac-
terizes all dictatorships does not necessarily translate into that power’s
durability.
Instead o assuming that the rise o populist dictatorships spells an
end for democratic aspirations in countries such as Hungary, Turkey,
and Venezuela, therefore, it is necessary to understand the circum-
stances under which these regimes are likely to succeed or fail. Recent
research on autocratic regimes suggests that there are good reasons to
believe that populist dictatorships will prove to be comparatively sta-
ble. Since most o them are situated in aÍuent countries, they can
aord to channel generous rewards to supporters o the regime. Since
they rule over strong states with capable bureaucracies, their leaders
can ensure that their orders are carried out in a timely and faithful
manner. Since they control well-developed security services, they can
monitor and deter opposition activity. And since they are embedded
in ecient ruling parties, they can recruit reliable cadres and deal
with crises o succession.
On the other hand, many o the countries these regimes control also
have features that favored democratization in the past. They usually
have high levels o education and economic development. They contain
opposition movements with strong traditions and relatively established
institutions o their own. They often neighbor democratic nations and
rely on democracies for their economic prosperity and military secu-
rity. Perhaps most important, many o these countries have a recent