Thinking, Fast and Slow

“Rental prices around here have gone up r Brro Qup r Brrecently, but our tenants don’t think it’s fair that we should raise thei ...

The Fourfold Pattern Whenever you form a global evaluation of a complex object—a car you may buy, your son-in-law, or an uncerta ...

The expectation principle asserts that your utility increases in each case by exactly 5% of the utility of receiving $1 million. ...

The conclusion is straightforward: the decision weights that people assign to outcomes are not identical to the probabilities of ...

If you are like most other people, you preferred the left-hand option in problem A and you preferred the right-hand option in pr ...

statisticians, economists, philosophers, and psychologists—took Allais’s challenge very seriously. When Amos and I began our wor ...

certainty effect, imagine first that you have a 1% chance to win $1 million. You will know the outcome tomorrow. Now, imagine th ...

children. Suppose that you currently use an insect spray that costs you $10 per bottle and it results in 15 inhalation poisoning ...

Figure 13 The top row in each cell shows an illustrative prospect. The second row characterizes the focal emotion that the prosp ...

The results for the top right cell initially surprised us. We were accustomed to think in terms of risk aversion except for the ...

Gambling in the Shadow of the Law The legal scholar Chris Guthrie has offered a compelling application of the fourfold pattern t ...

probabilities, and both know that in a negotiated settlement the plaintiff will get only a small fraction of the amount of the c ...

“He is tempted to settle this frivolous claim to avoid a freak loss, however unlikely. That’s overweighting of small probabiliti ...

Rare Events I visited Israel several times during a period in which suicide bombings in buses were relatively common—though of c ...

The thrilling possibility of winning the big prize is shared by the community and re Cmuninforced by conversations at work and a ...

confirmation bias, and cognitive ease. Specific descriptions trigger the associative machinery of System 1. When you thought abo ...

teams winning—is diffuse and less evocative. The fan’s memory and imagination, operating in confirmatory mode, are trying to con ...

found that the decision weight for a 90% chance was 71.2 and the decision weight for a 10% chance was 18.6. The ratio of the pro ...

To bolster their argument that insensitivity to probability is not caused by emotion, the Princeton team compared willingness to ...

21% (or 84%) chance to receive a large blue cardboard envelope containing $59 next Monday morning The new hypothesis is that the ...