Thinking, Fast and Slow

hero worship of CEOs we so often witness. If you expected this value to be higher—and most of us do—then you should take that as ...

this genre is Jim Collins and Jerry I. Porras’s Built to Last. The book contains a thorough analysis of eighteen pairs of compet ...

readers who are all too eager to believe them. Speaking of Hindsight “The mistake appears obvious, but it is just hindsight. You ...

The Illusion of Validity System 1 is designed to jump to conclusions from little evidence—and it is not designed to know the siz ...

was in contributing to the group effort. We saw who seemed to be stubborn, submissive, arrogant, patient, hot-tempered, persiste ...

We weed re downcast for a while after receiving the discouraging news. But this was the army. Useful or not, there was a routine ...

reluctant to infer the particular from the general. Subjective confidence in a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the prob ...

Perfect prices leave no scope for cleverness, but they also protect fools from their own folly. We now know, however, that the t ...

also buy the wrong stocks. Individual investors predictably flock to companies that draw their attention because they are in the ...

eight consecutive years. Each adviser’s scoof re for each year was his (most of them were men) main determinant of his year-end ...

judgment on complex problems was far more compelling to them than an obscure statistical fact. When we were done, one of the exe ...

ignorance. As I had discovered from watching cadets on the obstacle field, subjective confidence of traders is a feeling, not a ...

pundits in business and politics, too. Television and radio stations and newspapers have their panels of experts whose job it is ...

of The New York Times in ‘reading&#oul 8217; emerging situations.” The more famous the forecaster, Tetlock discovered, the m ...

and in combat to be predictable from behavior on an obstacle field— behavior both on the test and in the real world is determine ...

Intuitions vs. Formulas Paul Meehl was a strange and wonderful character, and one of the most versatile psychologists of the twe ...

sudden infant death syndrome; economic measures such as the prospects of success for new businesses, the evaluation of credit ri ...

actual prices is above .90. Why are experts e yinferior to algorithms? One reason, which Meehl suspected, is that experts try to ...

judgment or reached a different decision under very slightly different circumstances. Formulas do not suffer from such problems. ...

existing statistics or on common sense are often very good predictors of significant outcomes. In a memorable example, Dawes sho ...