Human Development Report - Croatia 2008 Coastal Zone and Sea-Level Rise^81River, Vrana Lake Nature Park and in the Neretva River
Delta (See Figure 5-3). Additionally, urban and agricul-
tural land will be at risk.
The estimates of potential land submersion shown in
Table 5-3 would probably have a significant impact on
human development on the Croatian coast. The vari-
ous dimensions of the human development impacts
are hard to measure, and indeed the economic losses
can still only be approximated. Looking at Europe as a
whole, the European Environment Agency (EEA) esti-
mates that the economic damage due to sea-level rise
in Europe will be between EUR 12-18 billion in 2080 –
though it is unclear if this includes Croatia. The same
study estimates that the number of Croatians who are
vulnerable to coastal flooding will increase from fewer
than 2000 people per year from 1960-1990, to 6000-
8000 people per year in the 2080s.^12
The economic damage due to increased flooding in
Croatia is potentially quite large. To approximate this
economic damage, the authors of the Report deter-
mined the areas potentially affected by sea-level riseType of surfaceTotal surface covered at 50 cm SLR
Total additional surface covered
additionaly at 88 cmVegetated/ semi-vegetated
Bare rocks
ForestsBeaches/ Sand DunesSalinesFreshwater and marshesAgricultural land
Sport/ leisure facilitiesRoads/ railwaysUrban/ semiurban
Ports/ marine installationsIndustrial activity05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000Square metres coverd (x1000)Figure 5-6: Types of land which would be covered by 50
cm of sea-level rise and the additional amount covered
by 88 cm.Type of LandTotal surface
covered at 50
cm SLR (m2)Total land
covered at 88
cm SLR (m2)Lower value
per square
metre (EUR)Lower value
per square
metre (EUR)
Vegetated/ semi-vegetated 14,175,625 15,897,500 0 0
Bare rocks 420,625 4,383,750 0 0
Forests 10,861,875 11,615,000 0 0
Beaches/ Sand Dunes 176,250 1,871,875 0 0
Salines 4,384,375 4,406,250 0 0
Freshwater and marshes 42,124,375 43,815,000 0 0
Agricultural land 12,393,750 12,410,000 5 30
Sport/ leisure facilities 2,386,875 2,499,375 50 100
Roads/ railways 60,625 559,375 50 100
Urban/ semiurban 9,803,125 10,010,625 200 500
Ports/ marine installations 965,000 2,682,500 200 300
Industrial activity 2,303,125 2,308,125 200 300Total 100,055,625 112,459,37550 cm: EUR
2,798,594,00050 cm: EUR
6,498,563,000
88 cm: EUR
3,215,238,00088 cm: EUR
7,180,675,000Table 5-3: Total surface area covered by Sea-Level Rise at 0.5 and 0.88 metres and values used for economic calculation.