Fish as feed inputs for aquaculture: practices, sustainability and implications

Fish as feed inputs for aquaculture – Practices, sustainability and implications: a global synthesis 9

in the rapidly increasing consumption of fish in some developing countries, especially
China. Delgado et al. (2003) consider that aggregate consumption trends largely
mirror production trends in terms of composition and region of production, except
that annual rates of growth of consumption in developing countries outstrip rates of
growth of production by 0.2 percent per annum and are expected to continue to do
so through 2020 (0.3 percent, excluding China), suggesting decreasing net exports of
foodfish from developing to developed countries.

2.2.3 Supply from capture fisheries and aquaculture
According to FAO’s “The state of world fisheries and aquaculture” (FAO, 2005c),
total global fish production (capture fisheries plus aquaculture) might increase to
146 million tonnes by the year 2010 from 131 million tonnes in 2000 and then to
179 million tonnes by the year 2015 (Table 3). This means that growth in global fish
production is projected to decline from the annual rate of 2.7 percent during the last
decade (1990-2000) to 2.1 percent per year between 2000 and 2010 and to 1.6 percent
per year between 2010 and 2015. Global capture production is projected to stagnate,
while global aquaculture production is projected to increase substantially, albeit at
a slower rate than in the past. Out of the expected increase of 48 million tonnes in
total global fish production from 1999/2001 to 2015, 73 percent would come from
aquaculture, which is projected to account for 39 percent of global fish production in
2015 (up from 27.5 percent in 1999/2001).

2.2.4 Regional outlook for aquaculture development

• Asia: Marine and brackishwater aquaculture in Asia is likely to grow at a faster
  rate than freshwater aquaculture, possibly due to a growing shortage of suitable
  freshwater sites and declining quality and availability of freshwater (De Silva and
  Turchini, 2009). This shift from freshwater to brackishwater aquaculture implies
  an intensification of brackishwater aquaculture production as well as a greater
  proportion of seafood output being directed towards regional urban centres and
  international markets, a trend that is being reinforced by rapid globalization and
  a reduction in import tariff structures. This in turn indicates a movement towards
  production of high-value finfish and crustaceans, thus increasing the region’s
  demand for fishmeal and fish oil. This has potential consequences for the existing
  small-scale farmers in the region and how they adapt to the new technologies and
  processes involved.


• Europe: Aquaculture is now a maturing industry in Europe, especially for the
  established species such as salmon and trout. Past sectoral growth has been driven

TABLE 2
Global per capita seafood consumption (historical and predicted)

Regions

Historical per capita fish consumption

(kg/person/year) Forecasted

Increase

1995–2030

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2015 2030 % kg

Africa 4.8 5.6 6.3 7.2 6.9 7.6 7.4 10.5 14.8 98.4 7.3

Asia 8.5 9.2 10.2 9.7 11.2 13.0 17.9 20.1 24.1 34.7 6.2

Europe 17.4 19.6 21.1 20.1 22.7 21.7 16.8 26.3 30.8 83.0 14.0

Latin

America 5.7 6.7 7.3 9.1 8.4 9.4 9.5 10.7 14.2 49.0 4.7

North

America 12.8 14.4 14.0 15.5 19.4 21.4 21.6 30.0 35.5 64.0 13.9

Oceana 14.3 15.0 15.2 17.0 19.9 20.9 19.5 27.5 33.2 70.6 13.7

Global

Average 9.9 10.8 11.6 11.^4 12.6 13.6 15.6 18.7 22.5 44.3 6.9

Source: Ye (1999)