Spilling Bhd over Water? The Case of Ethiopia 293
were established, the 'capture' of land and resources (water) bad any rela-
tionship with local population growth and environmental decline, which
Homer-Dixon refers to as 'environmental scarcity: Instead, the establish-
ment of the irrigation schemes in key resource areas used by pastoralists was
the result of decisions reached by more powerful sectors of society to use the
relatively abundant resources for personal and, arguably, 'public' good. That
this environmental discrimination was at the expense of marginal, less pow-
erful groups within society was immaterial.
Furthermore, the power of such marginal groups, particularly pastoralists, is
increasingly reduced over time owing to the 'transitional' nature of their soci-
ety. Pastoralists are struggling to 'modernise' and adapt their livelihoods and
cultural practices to current political, social and economic stresses across the
landscape. As a result, what have been described as 'social fault lines' have
developed, such as a breakdown in traditional authority and control. "Social
fault lines," can he "manipulated by 'actors' in struggles over social, ethnic,
political, and international power" resulting in violent conflict that is triggered
by the en~ironment.'~~ This would appear to be the case in Awash, where local
communities, particularly pastoralists, have been manipulated by governments
and used in relation to the heavy mix of social, ethnic, political and intema-
tional issues that shape the fractured political landscape of the Afar region. As
a result, violent conflict triggered by environmental issues has ensued.
Conflict in the Awash Basin is likely to continue.19~o prevent the situa-
tion from becoming more violent will require that ecological factors in con-
flict receive greater research and policy attention. Furthermore, ecological
factors should be fully recognised and accounted for in conflict prevention
and resolution processes and policies. At the same time, the inherently polit-
ical nature of such conflicts needs to be recognised. Many sources of conflict
can only be addressed at regional and national levels. A more concerted effon
should be made to do so. Links should also be made with the local actors
in building peace. Learning and applying traditional methods of conflict
prevention and management must be a priority for regional and national
conflict prevention and management strategies. National strategies, however,
may become more difficult as regions become stronger and regional identities
more firmly established. Therefore, it is vital that work begins now to ensure
that a firm basis for conflict prevention/resolution is established across
regions and the country,
Case Study 2: the Nile Basin
The focus here is on the water resources of the Nile and the three major
states competing to control Nile waters, namely, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.
The Nile waters originating in Ethiopia, the Blue Nile, are hydrologically