The Economist - USA (2022-02-26)

20 BriefingWarinUkraine TheEconomistFebruary26th 2022

that:“Theworldmustactimmediately.Fu­

tureofEurope&theworldisatstake.”His

predecessor,PavloKlimkin,saysUkraine

“would not give in.” Its best hope, he

thinks,liesintheWeststeppingintonego­

tiatea ceasefirewithoutfurtherterritorial

losses.“Thealternativedoesn'tbearthink­

ingabout.”

ThehistoricalcentreofPodyl,oneof

theoldestdistrictsofKyiv,wasmuchless

busythan usual as the day began. But

tramscontinued to operate,andpeople

huddledaroundthetramstoptodiscuss

theevents.AlexanderVoltarnist,a 27­year­

old, said he would gather together the

womenofhisfamilyandtakethemhome

andthenregisterforthearmy.Hehasnev­

erfoughtbeforebutsaysheknowshowto

handlehimself.“There’snosenseinrun­

ning.AndallI willsaytothecrazymaniac

isthathehasputhisnosewhereitisn’t

welcome.Andwewillfuckhimover.”

Anvilandhammer

Russia’sonslaughtendeda longperiodof

uncertainty,onewhichinUkrainetookthe

formofanalmosteeriecalmasthecountry

anditsleadersresolvednottopanic.There

wasnodoubtthatRussiawasbuildingup

an unprecedented amount of firepower

withinstrikingrange.Butthefreeavail­

ability of information about Russia’s

build­up oftroops gathered by Western

governmentsandbyopen­sourceintelli­

gencegroupswasinsharpcontrastwith

MrPutin’sopacityabouthisplans.Washe

reallyfocusedonUkraine?Oronbroader

regionalsecurityconcernsthatwouldget

takenmoreseriouslyifhethreatenedUk­

raine?Orona pieceoftheatretailoredfor

domesticconsumption?Nosatellitecould

say.Nor,itappeared,couldMrPutin’sin­

nercircle.

AspeechhegaveonMondayFebruary

21stclarifiedthings.MrPutinwasrecog­

nisingthepro­Russian“republics”ofDo­

netskandLuhanskinthetwoUkrainian

oblasts, or administrative divisions, of

whichthosecitiesaretheeponyms;hewas

alsorecognisingtheirclaimtotherestof

thetwooblasts.Indoingsohetriggereda

firstroundofsanctionsfromWesternna­

tionsanda stateofemergencyinUkraine.

Butitwasthevehemencewithwhichhe

didsothatshockedcritically­mindedRus­

sians into reassessing their prior belief

thata warwhichtheysawasveryunlikely

toserveRussia’slong­terminterestswas,

forthatreason,averyunlikelywar.The

firstpartoftheanalysisstood;thesecond

wasthrownintodoubt.

Thatwasinpartbecauseoftheinsight

theperformanceofferedinto MrPutin’s

senseofhisownposition.Hecameacross

asisolated, aggrievedandaggressive.In

thepasthistalkofrestoringtheunityofa

Slavic, Orthodox Russian homeland

broughtlowbythecollapseoftheSoviet

Union,couldbetreatedascoverforthere­

gime’stheft,authoritarianismandfailure

todeliveronitspeople’saspirations.Now

itlookedlikea fiercefocus.Thepresident

presentedhimselfnotsomuchasanelect­

edpresidentbutasanemperorlookingfor

aplacealongsideIvantheTerrible,Peter

theGreat,CatherinetheGreatandStalin,

thegiantsinthepantheonoftransforma­

tive Russian rulers and gatherers­in of

Russianlands.

The separatist “republics” which the

speechwasinprincipleaboutwerecreated

duringthecrisiswhichfollowedwhatis

nowknown as Ukraine’s“Revolutionof

Dignity” in 2014. In November 2013

Ukraine’sparliamenthadbeenpreparing

to signan“associationagreement”with

theeuwhichwouldhavemovedthecoun­

trya lotclosertotheunion.AtMrPutin’s

bidding,andwithfinancialinducements,

then­president Viktor Yanukovych, a

crookedthugfromDonbas,scupperedthe

deal.People protesting hisactionswere

bludgeonedbythesecurityforcesinKyiv’s

IndependenceSquare,knownasMaidan.

Farmoreprotestersthentooktheirplace

onMaidan,occupyingit formonths.

ThefollowingFebruaryviolencebroke

out;inthreedays 130 peoplewerekilled,

mostofthemprotesters.MrYanukovych

fledthecountry.Needingtoimposehim­

self,MrPutinmovedtoannexCrimea,a

peninsulaintheBlackSeathatmanyRus­

siansconsideredRussianratherthanUk­

rainian.Irregular forces in Donbassup­

portedbyMrPutinstartedthemovements

whichwouldbecomethepro­Russian“re­

publics”inDonetskandLuhansk.

ButMrPutin’snewvision,asoutlined

inthatFebruary21stspeech,goesfarbe­

yondsupportingthepurportedrights of

the separatiststo split their oblasts off

fromUkraine.It rejectstheveryideaofUk­

raineasa nationstate,castingitinsteadas

“aninalienablepartofourhistory,culture

andspiritualspace”sunderedfromRussia

bytheBolsheviksatthetimeoftherevolu­

tion and then bolstered with territory

seizedfromHungary,PolandandRomania

underStalin.MrPutinasserteda Russian

claimnotjusttoDonbas,buttoa gamutof

“historicRussian lands” which includes

theBlackSeacoastallthewaytoOdessa.

Theenemyonallsides

Ashedidsohesnarledhiscontemptfor

Ukrainians:theywereungratefulbetrayers

ofRussia’s friendship, mindlessly aping

foreigners.Iftheywantedtobefreeofthe

legacy of communism, he said, they

should also be free of the territories

communism had provided them. State

broadcastershelpfullydisplayeda mapof

Ukraineinwhich,shornofthose“gifts”,its

territorywas reducedto a smallyellow

blobsouthofKyiv.ForYuliaMostovaya,

theeditorofZerkaloNedeli, aUkrainian

newspaper,thedisplayofemotionfroma

manschooledinthecoolartsofspyingwas

striking.Watchthespeech,shesays,and

“You'llseezero emotionswhenhetalks

aboutnato or America. When hetalks

aboutUkrainehebecomesconsumedwith

akind ofsqueamishloathing. Hehates

everythingaboutus.”

Despite that disjuncture of tone,

though,oneoftheclearmessagesofMrPu­

tin’sspeechwasthathisenemieswereall

ofa piece.ThreateningUkraineisnota way

tobringtheWesttothetable:itisa wayto

pushitbackfromthedoorbyexpellingits

Ukrainianlackeys.Ukrainewasahostile

territoryrunbyAmericanstryingtotake

Russiadown.Ithastobeportrayedassuch

because Russians can be made to hate

Kyiv

Odessa

Black

Sea

Seaof

Azov

Dnieper

UKRAINE

BELARUS

POLAND

HUNGARY

SLOVAKIA

ROMANIA

MOLDOVA

RUSSIA

Crimea

Luhansk

Donetsk

Donbas

Warsaw

Kherson

Dnipro

Kharkiv

Belgorod

Mazyr

Chernihiv

Vasilkiv

Controlledby

Russian-backed

separatists

Ukrainianterritory

annexedbyRussia

150 km

Feb 24th 2022 at 11.1 GMT

Sources:Liveuamap;Rochan

Consulting;TheEconomist

Reported border crossings

Reported explosions

Selected airports

Selected military airfields

Mariupol