CHILD POVERTY AND INEQUALITY: THE WAY FORWARD

(Barry) #1

In the vast majority of cases, the explanatory variables are strongly


independent among each other. This is not true in five cases where


medium bilateral correlation coefficients are 0.5-0.6 involving the


correlation between pension and social security expenditure,


pensions and the distribution of human capital, taxes and social


expenditure, and FDI and Gini education. This may cause some


problems of multicollinearity and render the related parameters of


some of these variables non-significant. In more general terms,


however, the small bilateral collinearity among variables suggests


that there is no need to develop a structural multi-equation model –


as it might be suggested by economic theory because of the possible


(but not empirically verified) relations among regressors. Indeed,


one might surmise that the growth rate of GDP/c depends on the


international terms of trade, migrant remittances, or FDI, but the


related region-wide correlation coefficients between these pairs of


variables are only 0.26, 0.03 and -0.06.


3.B. Estimation procedure and regression results


The IDLA database is organized as a tri-dimensional matrix, with


18 countries on one axis, 18 years on the second, and the 12


dependent variables used in the analysis on the third. One may


wonder if the use of a panel of different countries may cause


heterogeneity in the data. Yet, the Breusch-Pagan test for data


poolability refuses, at the zero percent probability level, the null


hypothesis of heterogeneity of country data. As for the choice of


the best estimator, this kind of dataset demands that the procedure


chosen for the estimation of the determinants of income inequality


takes into account that each country is observed over several


periods. Such model takes therefore the following form:


it it uxy i  it^


where y is the dependent variable (the Gini coefficient of the


distribution of gross income per capita), x is a vector of explanatory


variables (see above), the subscripts i and t represent respectively


the countries and the years of the panel, ui is the error term for each


country, it is a joint error term for countries and time periods, and


represent the parameters to be estimated. Given the nature of this

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